Week 7 wraps up with an NFC East matchup that looks very different from the one fans might have expected a few weeks ago. The Dallas Cowboys head to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football with Dak Prescott playing in his third straight primetime game, while the Eagles turn to backup quarterback Tanner McKee after losing Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season because of multiple blood clots.
Both teams are sitting below .500 after six weeks, but the momentum - and the injury news - has pushed the betting market toward Dallas. The best betting sites have the Eagles listed as 4.5-point underdogs, and Philadelphia has now dropped four straight games to slide out of the NFC playoff picture. The Eagles are also now massive long shots to win the Super Bowl, the division and make the postseason.
Dallas has its own flaws, especially on defense, but the Cowboys have still found ways to generate offense. They rank in the top 10 in EPA/Play on offense, and oddsmakers still have them favored to win the division and reach the playoffs. At the same time, they’re running out of room to keep pace with the New York Giants, and if the losses keep piling up, those division odds could eventually flip.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is taking a different stance in his Road to 272 column, siding with Philadelphia to cover.
“As I've written about before in this series, I simply can't bet on the Cowboys when they're laying points, even if it's against a decimated Eagles team. Not only does Dallas have the worst defense in the NFL, but their offense hasn't held up their end of the bargain the past two weeks. They now rank 23rd in the NFL in net yards per play at -0.5.
Any bet on the Eagles right now is an ugly one, but I'm much lower on the Cowboys than the market seems to be. I'll take the points with the home team.”
There are still some player props that stand out on both sides, starting with CeeDee Lamb. He has topped seven catches in four of his six games this season and has been one of the most heavily targeted receivers in football. Lamb has 69 targets, 48 receptions, 577 receiving yards and four touchdowns through six games, and after a quieter Week 5 against Tampa Bay, he answered with 18 targets and nine catches in the Week 6 loss to Green Bay.
That kind of workload makes him a natural focal point against an Eagles defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Pass. Lamb has at least eight targets in all but one game this season, giving him a strong floor if Dallas leans on the passing game as expected.
On the other side, Dallas Goedert has quietly become a key part of the Eagles offense again after missing time early in the season. Since returning in Week 5, he’s been targeted 17 times over the last two games and has caught 12 passes for 99 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone in that stretch, but Tanner McKee did look his way in McKee’s first start of the season.
That matters here because Dallas has been vulnerable to tight ends all year. The Cowboys have allowed three touchdowns to the position, and their defense sits last in the league in EPA/Pass. Goedert has already shown what kind of red-zone weapon he can be, scoring twice in Week 1 and 11 times in 15 games last season.
McKee’s workload could be significant again. He threw 45 passes in Philadelphia’s Week 6 loss to Carolina, and the Eagles may need that type of volume once more because their run game is so depleted. Saquon Barkley has missed the last two games, while Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby are both on injured reserve.
That has left Philadelphia in a rough place offensively. The Eagles are last in the NFL in yards per play, and if they fall behind early on Monday night, McKee could be asked to carry the offense through the air against a Dallas pass defense that ranks 32nd in EPA/Pass and sits in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed.
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