The Philadelphia Eagles are headed back to the playoffs for the fifth straight season - and this time, they’re doing it as back-to-back NFC East champions. Saturday night’s win over the Washington Commanders punched their ticket, and Lincoln Financial Field is guaranteed at least one postseason game.
But where they’ll land in the NFC playoff hierarchy? That’s still very much in play.
Let’s break down what’s on the table for Philly, from the most likely outcome to the long-shot scenarios that would take a near-miracle to pull off.
Most Likely Landing Spot: The No. 3 Seed
Right now, the No. 3 seed is the Eagles' most realistic destination. They would’ve locked it up outright if the Carolina Panthers had lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday - but that didn’t happen.
So, the door remains open for some movement.
Still, the path to locking in the 3-seed is pretty straightforward. If the Eagles win just one of their final two games - or if the Panthers stumble in either of their remaining matchups (vs.
Seahawks, at Buccaneers) - Philly secures the spot. That would mean a home game in the Wild Card round, and potentially a second-round road trip depending on how the rest of the NFC shakes out.
The Doomsday Drop: The No. 4 Seed
This is the nightmare scenario - and while it’s possible, it’s not likely.
For the Eagles to fall to the No. 4 seed, they’d have to lose both of their remaining games, and the Panthers would need to win out. That would mean Philly dropping a tough road game to the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 - not out of the question - and then somehow losing at home to the 4-11 Washington Commanders in Week 18. That’s a much taller ask.
Meanwhile, Carolina would have to beat both the Seahawks and Bucs in back-to-back weeks. Given the inconsistency we’ve seen from the Panthers this season, that’s a long shot.
But in the NFL, strange things happen in December. The Eagles can’t afford to take their foot off the gas just yet.
Climbing Higher: The No. 2 Seed
Now here’s where things get interesting.
If the Eagles want to climb into the No. 2 spot - and guarantee themselves home-field advantage through at least the Divisional Round - they need to win out. That means taking care of business in Buffalo and then again at home against Washington. But that’s only half the equation.
They also need the Chicago Bears (currently 11-4) to lose both of their remaining games. The Bears close the season with a tough road test against the San Francisco 49ers, followed by a home game against the Detroit Lions.
Both opponents are playoff-caliber, and both bring firepower on offense. But the Bears have been one of the league’s more resilient squads down the stretch, so expecting them to drop both isn’t something you’d bet the house on.
According to projection models heading into Sunday, the Eagles had just a 16% chance of landing the 2-seed. Not impossible - but they’ll need help.
The Longest of Long Shots: The No. 1 Seed
Yes, technically, the top seed in the NFC is still in play. But it’s about as likely as a snowstorm in Miami.
The Eagles need a perfect storm of chaos across the conference:
- The 49ers must lose both of their next two games (vs. Colts, vs.
Bears)
- The Seahawks must lose to both the Panthers and 49ers
- The Rams need to drop one of their final two (vs. Falcons or Cardinals)
- And the Bears have to lose to the Lions in Week 18
That’s a lot of dominoes. And while none of those individual outcomes are completely outrageous, the odds of all of them happening together? Less than 1%, according to projections.
Still, it’s technically alive - at least until Monday night, when the 49ers host the Colts as favorites. If San Francisco takes care of business, the dream of the top seed officially dies.
The Bottom Line
The Eagles have already checked off some major boxes: division champs, postseason bound, and another playoff game in front of the Philly faithful. But the next two weeks will determine just how comfortable - or treacherous - their playoff path will be.
At this point, the 3-seed is the most likely outcome. But if they finish strong and get a little help, there’s still a shot at climbing higher. Either way, the road to the Super Bowl is open - and the Eagles are in the thick of it.