The Washington Commanders sit at 1-3-1, and the picture around them is messy enough to keep hope alive. Their roster has been hit hard by injuries, the play has been uneven, and they’re parked in last place in the NFC East. But the division hasn’t separated the way it usually does, and that matters.
Philadelphia and Dallas are both 2-3, only half a game ahead of Washington. New York is out front at 3-1-1, though the Giants’ lead is not exactly a mountain. With 12 games still to play, the Commanders are far from buried.
There’s also a quirky wrinkle in the standings that helps explain how crowded this race still is. The NFL’s tiebreaking procedures say that: "Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs."
Washington already dropped games to both Philadelphia and Dallas, which makes the margin for error thin. Even so, the Eagles have now lost three straight, Dallas is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay, and New York had a rough first half against the Commanders before Washington managed to force a tie.
That’s why the next stretch feels so important. Washington heads to San Francisco on Monday night, Oct. 19, and hasn’t won there since 2004.
After that comes the Week 7 bye. While Washington is off, the Giants will host the Saints on October 18 and then go to Houston on the 25th.
When the Commanders return, the schedule turns right back into division football. Their first game after the bye is against the Eagles in Week 8.
They then host the Rams on November 8 and visit the Giants on November 12. Two of those first three games after the break come against NFC East opponents, which means the division race could swing fast.
Washington is 0-2-1 against its division rivals, so the rematches carry real weight. A win over the Eagles would at least let the Commanders split the season series there.
They can still win the season series against the Giants, too. If they beat both teams, that sets up the Cowboys later in the year when Dallas comes to Washington in Week 18.
Run the table in those remaining division games and Washington would finish 3-2-1 against the NFC East. If Philadelphia and Dallas both split with each other and also beat New York, the Commanders could still be in strong shape.
But the math can flip in a hurry. If Washington loses Monday and the Giants win both of their games before the Commanders come out of the bye, the gap grows to 3½ games.
Dallas and Philadelphia face each other during that stretch, so only one of them can gain ground, but New York could still pull away.
Adam Peters is part of this equation, too, because the trade deadline lands on November 10, just two days before the Giants rematch. That gives Washington San Francisco, Philadelphia, and the Rams as the last three games before the deadline. Those games have to show Peters enough to justify adding help.
It’s not just about staying alive in the standings. The front office also has to believe this group can make something of any upgrade.
Peters is not operating under the old setup, and the pressure is on him to get a winning product on the field now, not later. He’s feeling it just like Quinn, even if he may have a longer leash.
For all the damage this season has already taken, Washington is still standing. The Commanders have used up more than their share of mistakes, and then some.
The first meeting with New York felt like a missed chance, and the way things ended in Philadelphia only sharpened that frustration. This has become a season defined by tiny margins.
The bye gives Washington time to clean some things up, but the real answer has to come against Philadelphia. The Commanders already lost once to the Eagles, and they can’t keep leaning on other teams’ losses to make up for their own. At the same time, Washington has pulled off this kind of Monday night surprise before, beating the unbeaten Eagles 32-21 in 2022, even though its all-time record in the Bay Area is 3-10-1.
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