Penn State’s 2026 schedule looks manageable on paper, but the real pressure points are easy to spot. The Nittany Lions open the Matt Campbell era Sept. 5 against Marshall at Beaver Stadium, then get Temple and Buffalo before the calendar starts tightening. They avoid the Big Ten’s top three teams - Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon - and also miss Iowa and Illinois, which gives this slate a softer edge than most first-year coaches inherit.
Still, there are plenty of places where things can go sideways. Here are the five games that shape the season, from least daunting to most dangerous.
The trip to Minnesota is one of those games that has a way of hanging over Penn State seasons. From 1999 to 2019, the Gophers repeatedly found a way to matter in Nittany Lions storylines, and this year’s meeting comes at a key point in the schedule. It will be the first one at Beaver Stadium since 2022, and it lands in the middle of Penn State’s toughest five-game stretch.
Minnesota’s preseason FPI ranking sits at 63rd, so the matchup doesn’t scream menace at first glance. P.J.
Fleck could also be gone by Nov. 14 if the season starts to unravel. But the Gophers bring back a solid chunk of offense, and defensive end Anthony Smith is one of the Big Ten’s best.
Northwestern is another game that has trap written all over it. David Braun was the last coach to beat Penn State in 2025, when the Wildcats’ 22-21 win at Beaver Stadium led Pat Kraft to fire James Franklin the next day. That loss was Franklin’s final trap game at Penn State, and it could end up being Campbell’s first.
Braun followed a 7-6 season by making two eye-catching additions this offseason, hiring offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterbacks coach Jerry Neuheisel as his quarterbacks coach. Penn State fans know Neuheisel well after UCLA’s interim offensive coordinator used a quarterback-run approach to stun the Nittany Lions at the Rose Bowl last year. The setting adds to the challenge, too: Penn State goes to Northwestern for a Friday-night opener at the new Ryan Field, where 35,000 seats should be packed and loud.
Washington is one of the hardest games to pin down. It comes after a bye week and a home date with Purdue, but it also sits in the middle of a stretch that includes USC and Washington. Penn State’s first trip to Washington since 1921 is the kind of game that can swing either way.
The Huskies are one of three nine-win teams Penn State will face, and Jedd Fisch has a roster that looks a lot like Penn State’s in terms of talent. Demond Williams Jr. returns at quarterback after nearly transferring out, and Washington is always a tough out at home. On paper, this feels close to a pick-em.
The USC game is already being treated that way by DraftKings, and that makes sense given the setup. It likely will be the 2026 Penn State White Out, and Campbell’s team could enter at 5-0. USC coach Lincoln Riley, meanwhile, has to get through Oregon and Washington before arriving in Happy Valley with an unbeaten record.
Riley has one of his better teams, led by second-year quarterback Jayden Maiava, and USC is being viewed as the Big Ten outsider with CFP hopes. Riley also made a major move on defense, replacing coordinator D’Anton Lynn with former TCU head coach Gary Patterson, who has been out of coaching for the past three seasons.
Then there’s Michigan, the game that may carry the most weight. Penn State is already a 6.5-point underdog at Michigan Stadium, where Campbell and Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham will meet as two of the Big Ten’s most intriguing new faces. Whittingham didn’t have to deal with the kind of roster turnover Campbell inherited, which makes Penn State’s task even trickier.
Michigan is 14th in SP+, three spots ahead of Penn State, and the Wolverines are hoping a new coordinator can give quarterback Bryce Underwood a clean reset. The defense, though, may need a month or so to settle in. That’s the good news for Michigan - Penn State comes to Ann Arbor in mid-October.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
James Franklin Just Reopened A Penn State Debate Fans Never Forgot
James Franklins departure from Penn State is still the kind of topic that can pull old frustrations back to the surface, especially now that he is at Virginia Tech and looking back on the end of his run in Happy Valley. The timing is notable too, with Penn State continuing its Beaver Stadium renovation work in Phase II of a $700 million project and another major donation helping keep the overhaul moving forward.
At the same time, the football conversation around the program has not exactly settled down. ESPNs preseason College Football Power Index pegs Penn State 17th, projects nine wins and gives the Nittany Lions a 22 percent shot at the College Football Playoff, a reminder that expectations remain high even as the roster turns over and the program prepares to introduce 55 new players in 2026. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Fans Already Face One Big Matt Campbell Debate
Matt Campbell is about to begin his first season in charge at Penn State, and the early conversation around 2026 is already less about a quick fix than about what a realistic first step looks like. The schedule sets up better than the one the Nittany Lions faced in 2025, and Campbells long runway with the program gives the staff room to build without treating every Saturday like a referendum.
Still, the first-year bar will not be low. Penn State avoids Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon on the 2026 slate, which opens the door to a solid jump if the transition goes smoothly, and a 9-3 finish feels like a fair target rather than a dream scenario. A College Football Playoff berth would be the ceiling in year one, but the bigger question is how quickly Campbell can turn that cleaner schedule and fresh start into the kind of baseline that makes the next step feel inevitable. [Read more 🡒]