With the Super Bowl now the only game left on the NFL calendar, the dust is settling from a pair of tightly contested conference championships. The Patriots edged out the Broncos 13-10 in a defensive slugfest in Denver, while the Seahawks held off the Rams 31-27 in a high-octane battle in Seattle. Now, all eyes turn to Santa Clara, where Seattle enters Super Bowl 60 as a five-point favorite over New England.
Let’s break down how these games unfolded through the lens of the betting market-and what stood out from a numbers and narrative perspective.
Patriots Survive in Denver, But Bettors Come Up Short
New England came into the AFC Championship as slight road favorites, opening at -4 and closing at -3.5. The betting public largely backed the Patriots, with 65% of the tickets and 62% of the money riding on them to cover. But while Bill Belichick’s squad managed to pull out the win, they didn’t do enough to cash those spread tickets, squeaking by with a three-point margin.
The quarterback matchup was a factor here. Denver turned to Jarrett Stidham with rookie Bo Nix sidelined due to an ankle injury. That shift under center likely influenced the line movement, but the Broncos’ defense held firm, keeping the game tight and low-scoring.
Speaking of low-scoring, the total closed at 43-and this one never came close. Despite 69% of the money backing the over, the game landed well under, a testament to both defenses and a sluggish offensive pace. For under bettors, it was a stress-free win.
Seahawks Cover, Offense Delivers in NFC Shootout
Over in the NFC, Seattle took care of business at home. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites throughout the week and rewarded their backers by covering the spread in a four-point win over the Rams. While they only drew 41% of the money, they did attract 63% of the bets-suggesting more public confidence than sharp action.
This game was a different story from the AFC title bout. The total closed at 45.5, and the teams combined for 58 points.
Bettors were bullish on the over, with 67% of the tickets expecting fireworks-and they got them. Seattle’s offense found its rhythm, while the Rams kept pace to make it a back-and-forth affair.
Prop Watch: Darnold Defies the Odds
One of the most popular prop bets of the week centered on Seahawks QB Sam Darnold. At -155, the line for Darnold to throw an interception was heavily bet, especially considering he’d tossed six picks in two regular-season games against the Rams.
But in a twist, Darnold protected the football when it mattered most, keeping a clean sheet in the turnover column. That result burned a lot of prop slips and added another layer of unpredictability to a thrilling NFC title game.
Looking Ahead: NBA Futures Taking Shape
While the NFL season is winding down, the NBA’s title race is heating up. The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently the favorites to repeat as champions, sitting at +125. Behind them are the Denver Nuggets at +600, with the Spurs (+1100), Celtics (+1400), and both the Pistons and Knicks (+1600) rounding out the top tier of contenders.
There’s still a lot of basketball left to play, but the odds are starting to crystallize-and a few teams are beginning to separate themselves from the pack.
Final Whistle
With just one game left in the NFL season, the stage is set for a heavyweight clash between a battle-tested Patriots squad and a Seahawks team that’s peaking at the right time. From a betting standpoint, Seattle’s early status as a five-point favorite shows where the oddsmakers and early money are leaning. But if this postseason has taught us anything, it’s that spreads, props, and totals can all go sideways in a hurry.
Strap in. Super Bowl 60 is on deck.