ESPN’s Football Power Index is feeling pretty good about Penn State’s regular season - and for most of the schedule, it’s not hard to see why.
The Nittany Lions are projected to open with a run of games where the numbers lean heavily in their favor. Marshall sits at 95.5% for Penn State, Temple comes in at 92.5%, and Buffalo is the safest bet of the bunch at 96.4%. Those three early nonconference matchups all point the same way: FPI sees PSU handling business without much drama.
The first real tests start to show up once Big Ten play begins. Wisconsin, even with the game in Happy Valley, is still given a respectable 80.3% chance to lose. Northwestern is a little less comfortable for Penn State, especially with the Wildcats playing their first game in their new stadium, but FPI still gives PSU a 77.4% shot there.
The White Out against USC is where the schedule starts to get interesting. Penn State picked that one as its annual White Out game, and if both teams arrive where they’re supposed to, it could be a top-10 matchup. FPI makes Penn State the slight home favorite, assigning the Lions a 63.4% win probability.
Then comes a much tougher road stretch. Michigan in “The Big House” is a different animal, and FPI clearly respects the home-field edge there.
Penn State’s chances against the Wolverines drop to 33.8%, even before the trip across the country for Washington. That one is nearly a coin flip, with ESPN giving Penn State a 48.7% win probability against a Washington team ranked one spot ahead of PSU at No.
The rest of the Big Ten slate tilts back toward Penn State. Purdue projects as one of the conference’s weakest teams, and FPI gives PSU an 89.1% chance there.
Minnesota, which usually gets to bowl season under P.J. Fleck, is still a comfortable matchup by the numbers at 87.6%.
Rutgers comes in at 87.7%, and Maryland is at 79.1%, with Penn State not having lost in College Park since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014.
So while the middle of the schedule includes a few spots where Penn State will have to prove itself, ESPN’s model still sees a team that should be favored in most of its games - and heavily favored in plenty of them.
In Other News...
Penn State Just Lost An Important Young Defender At A Bad Time
Penn States defense took a hit at an inconvenient moment when LaVar Arrington II went down with a knee injury that will require a procedure, a development confirmed by his father on Fox Sports Radio. The sophomore defensive end had been carving out a role for himself through special teams work, and the coaching staff had pointed to his effort and explosiveness as part of what made him an intriguing young piece on the roster.
Matt Campbell has not offered details on the injury or how long Arrington might be out, leaving the Nittany Lions with one more uncertainty as they sort through their depth. For a player still trying to build momentum in his second season, the timing is especially rough, and it now leaves Penn State waiting to see how the rotation and special teams plans hold up without him. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Reopens A Painful Joe Paterno Debate
Penn States decision to expand its All-Sports Museum inside Beaver Stadium is already stirring familiar emotions around the program. The new Paterno Family Football Experience Room will include an exhibit on Joe Paterno, and athletic director Pat Kraft said the space is meant to preserve and present the history of Penn State football, a history that still carries enormous weight for the school and its supporters.
Even so, the announcement has reopened a painful debate that never quite fades on this campus. For some fans, any new nod to Paterno inevitably brings back the universitys ties to the Jerry Sandusky sexual abuse scandal, making the move feel less like a museum addition and more like a test of how Penn State chooses to frame its past. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Just Reignited Its Most Divisive Football Legacy Debate
A new permanent Joe Paterno exhibit has opened at the Penn State All-Sports Museum, giving visitors a closer look at one of the most influential and polarizing figures in the schools football history. The display includes items from Paternos office, awards and a timeline of his career, underscoring how deeply his name remains woven into the identity of the program decades after his peak years on the sideline.
The exhibits framing is what makes it impossible to ignore, especially for a fan base that has spent years wrestling with how to remember that era. It does not mention the child sexual abuse charges against former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky or Paternos handling of the situation, and that choice is already shaping the conversation around the museum addition. Penn State coach Matt Campbell noted the importance of the programs history, but the question of how much of that history should be celebrated, and how much should be confronted, remains very much alive. [Read more 🡒]