Penn State’s first loss of the season clearly shook up the conversation, but ESPN’s latest Football Power Index update says the season is far from off the rails.
After the gut-punch defeat to Wisconsin in Week 4, the Nittany Lions saw their win probabilities slide across the board for the rest of the 2026 regular season. Still, the model keeps Penn State favored in every remaining game except one, which leaves the door open for what could still be a 10-2 regular season.
The biggest shift came this week at Northwestern. That matchup took the sharpest hit in ESPN’s latest numbers, dropping by about 14 percentage points and landing close to toss-up territory. Northwestern’s showing in a loss to Indiana also helped move that line.
The only game where Penn State is now listed as the underdog is the road trip to Michigan. That game was essentially even in last week’s projection, but the latest update nudges Michigan ahead. Penn State’s chance there sits at 47.2%.
Here’s how ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor views the rest of Penn State’s 2026 regular season entering Week 5:
Week 5 at Northwestern
Friday, Oct.
2
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
ESPN FPI: 55.9% (was 69.2%)
Week 6 vs. USC
Saturday, Oct. 10
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 65.3% (was 70.4%)
Week 7 at Michigan
Saturday, Oct.
17
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
ESPN FPI: 47.2% (was 50.0%)
Week 9 vs. Purdue
Saturday, Oct. 31
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 93.1% (was 93.9%)
Week 10 at Washington
Saturday, Nov.
7
Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
ESPN FPI: 70.5% (was 73.2%)
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
Saturday, Nov. 14
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 88.6% (was 92.2%)
Week 12 vs. Rutgers
Saturday, Nov. 21
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 93.3% (was 96.0%)
Week 13 at Maryland
Saturday, Nov.
28
SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
ESPN FPI: 87.1% (was 79.1%)
In Other News...
Penn State Fans Just Got A New Beaver Stadium Comparison
Northwesterns new Ryan Field made its debut during Penn States visit, giving Nittany Lions fans a fresh point of comparison for what a modern college football venue can look like. The 35,000-seat on-campus stadium, built at a cost of $870 million, puts a premium on closeness to the action, with premium seating, a standing-only student section and a layout that brings the crowd right up to the playing surface.
Penn State broadcaster Steve Jones also took note of the new setup, including the location of the visiting radio booth, while the game added another layer to the conversation with the strong Peacock/NBC production. For Penn State observers, the contrast with Beaver Stadium was hard to miss, especially on a night when the sideline environment again underscored how crowded things can feel in Happy Valley. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Northwestern Prep Just Took A Surprising Turn
Penn States trip to Northwestern now comes with a little more clarity on the injury front for both sides. The Wildcats will be without tight end Luke Dehnicke and defensive back Braden Turner, while defensive back Damon Walters and receiver Hayden Eligon are listed as game-time decisions. There is confidence that Eligon will suit up, which gives Northwestern at least a chance to keep one more piece available as it tries to sort through a thin week of preparation.
For the Nittany Lions, the injury picture is familiar in a less welcome way. Defensive end Max Granville is out for the season, and receiver Koby Howard is sidelined for an extended stretch, leaving Penn State to keep adjusting its depth as the schedule rolls on. Even with Northwestern dealing with its own absences, this is the sort of matchup where availability can shape both game planning and in-game flexibility before either side ever settles into a rhythm. [Read more 🡒]
Former Penn State QB Is Watching One Big Test For This New Era
Drew Allar is keeping a close eye on Penn States next chapter, and he sounds encouraged by the direction the program is headed under new head coach Matt Campbell. The former quarterback said he respects Campbell even though he never played for him, a small but telling sign that the transition has already earned some buy-in from one of the most recognizable players of the previous era.
Allar also pointed to Virginia Techs strong start under James Franklin as another reminder of how quickly new coaching situations can take shape. From his vantage point, both programs have a chance to keep growing beyond his time in college football, and the real test now is whether Penn State can turn that optimism into sustained success in Campbells new era. [Read more 🡒]