Penn State’s path to the College Football Playoff took a sharp hit after the Wisconsin loss, and ESPN’s Football Power Index shows just how much ground the Nittany Lions have lost.
FPI now gives Penn State a 9.1 percent chance to make the CFP. Before the Wisconsin game, that number sat at 38.5 percent.
That puts Penn State behind several Big Ten teams, including USC at 9.8 percent, UCLA at 13 percent, Iowa at 22.2 percent, Nebraska at 25.2 percent, Oregon at 41.1 percent, Ohio State at 68.2 percent and Indiana at 68.8 percent. It also trails Manny Diaz’s Duke Blue Devils, who are at 15.3 percent, and Pitt, which comes in at 22.5 percent.
The drop fits what happened on the field Saturday. Penn State did not look like a playoff team against Wisconsin, and even if it starts playing like one from here, the schedule is still working against it. With Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon all missing from the slate, the Nittany Lions were already short on chances to land a true signature win.
Penn State also got no help from the rest of the league’s upper tier. The three best teams on its schedule - Michigan, USC and Washington - all lost at home.
That leaves a pretty narrow road. Penn State likely has to win out to keep its playoff hopes alive, and even then the Nittany Lions would be testing the idea that an 11-1 Big Ten team gets in without any other major help.
For now, though, the only game that matters is Northwestern.
The Wildcats beat Coach Prime by 34 and then lost at No. 5 Indiana by six on Friday night. They also ended James Franklin’s PSU career last season.
Now they have a chance to make things much tougher for Franklin’s successor, Matt Campbell, on Friday night in Evanston. Kickoff is set for 8 pm Fox.
In Other News...
Penn State Already Faces An Uncomfortable Question About Life After Franklin
Penn States stumble at Beaver Stadium against Wisconsin in Matt Campbells Big Ten debut as head coach put an immediate spotlight on what life looks like after James Franklin. Coaching changes are never clean, especially when a new leader is being asked to steady a program with expectations as high as Penn States. Campbell arrives with a reputation as a builder, the kind of coach who needs time to shape a team in his image rather than simply patching over what came before.
For the Nittany Lions, the uncomfortable part is not just that the transition has begun, but that recent results have already started to look more fragile than the standard Franklin set in earlier years. This is the part of a changeover that programs hope to avoid, when every loss turns into a referendum on the new era and every uneven performance invites comparisons to the old one. Penn State is only at the beginning of that process, but the pressure to show progress is already very real. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Has A Scheduling Problem Fans Cant Ignore
Penn State had plenty to feel good about when it took a 17-0 lead into halftime, but the second half against Wisconsin turned into a reminder that early control does not always mean a game is secure. The offense managed only a field goal after the break, while Wisconsin kept chipping away and eventually put up 24 points to flip the result. Matt Campbell acknowledged the missed opportunities afterward, and the loss fit a familiar pattern for a team that can look polished before the pressure really ramps up.
That is why the conversation around the Nittany Lions non-conference slate has become hard to ignore. An easier early schedule can help a team build confidence and stack wins, but it can also hide flaws that only show up once the calendar turns and the opponents get stronger. For Penn State, the concern is not just the loss itself, but whether the schedule has given a truer picture of what this team is before the tougher conference tests arrive. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State's Offense Hit A Troubling Low In Loss To Wisconsin
Penn States offense has had uneven stretches this season, but the loss to Wisconsin brought a new low in the grading as well as the scoreboard. Pro Football Focus gave the unit its worst mark of the year, while the defense, which held up far better, posted its second-highest grade of the season and had one of the days biggest bright spots in freshman Josiah Zayas.
Zayas finished with the top defensive grade on the team after returning an interception for a touchdown, a play that briefly gave Penn State some life. The other side of the ball told a harsher story, with quarterback Rocco Becht turning in a rough outing and several offensive linemen also drawing season-low grades, leaving the offense searching for answers after another frustrating night. [Read more 🡒]