Penn State’s College Football Playoff hopes have taken a hard hit, and the bowl picture is shifting right along with them.
A team that opened the year ranked No. 18 and carrying at least a workable path to the playoff is now watching those odds collapse after back-to-back losses. First came a 24-20 defeat against unranked Wisconsin after the Nittany Lions let a 17-0 lead slip away. Then Northwestern delivered a 34-13 beatdown, piling up 413 rushing yards and leaving Penn State looking far removed from the upper tier of the Big Ten.
The numbers from the major projection outlets tell the same story. ESPN’s Football Power Index now gives Penn State just a .8 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff, a drop from 38.1 percent two weeks ago and 9.3 percent last week. The Nittany Lions are also listed with an 11.7 percent chance to win out the rest of the way, and ESPN has them at 0.0 percent to make the national title game.
ESPN’s two college football experts split on where Penn State lands in the bowl pecking order. Mark Schlabach projects the Nittany Lions in the Cacuts Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., against Kansas State, while Kyle Bonagura slots them into the Music City Bowl against Mississippi State in Nashville.
The Athletic has also moved Penn State well out of the playoff conversation. After projecting the Nittany Lions as a No. 8 through No. 11 seed through the first three weeks, it now gives them a two percent chance to make the playoff, down from nine percent last week.
Sports Illustrated sees Penn State headed to Nashville as well, but with a different opponent. SI has the Nittany Lions in the Music City Bowl against Kentucky on Dec. 30.
CBS Sports projects Penn State to the Pinstripe Bowl against Virginia and former Penn State QB Beau Pribula on Dec. 26 at noon at Yankee Stadium.
On3’s national projection, led by bowl expert Brett McMurphy, sends Penn State to the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 29 against Iowa State, the former employer of Matt Campbell.
In Other News...
Penn State Heads Into White Out With One Huge Offensive Problem
Penn State heads into the White Out still searching for something more dependable on offense after Matt Campbell acknowledged the issues that surfaced in the loss to Northwestern. The head coach said the group has not settled into an identity, and he pointed to the need for better play across the unit as the Nittany Lions try to steady themselves in a big home atmosphere.
Koby Howard remains part of the longer-term conversation, with Campbell saying the wide receiver is still a few weeks away from returning. For now, the bigger concern is whether Penn State can turn frustration into structure, because Campbell has made clear that building a consistent team culture has to go hand in hand with fixing the offense. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Is Still Paying For Its James Franklin Decision
Penn States decision to move on from James Franklin in October came with a clear ambition attached to it: the program wanted a coach who could get it all the way to a national championship. Instead, the aftermath turned into a long and messy coaching search that stretched on, created recruiting damage and made it harder to line up the next head coach than the school likely expected when it made the move after a 3-3 start to the previous season.
Matt Campbell is now in his first year on the sideline, and the Nittany Lions are 3-2, but the broader picture still looks unsettled. Several candidates declined or withdrew during the search, and the on-field results have been uneven enough to keep the pressure on a program that made a bold bet on a higher ceiling and is still living with the costs of trying to reach it. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Transfer-Heavy Roster Faces A Bigger Big Ten Problem
Penn States promising climb from No. 18 to No. 13 has hit a rough patch in Big Ten play, with back-to-back losses exposing the kinds of issues that tend to show up when the schedule gets heavier and more physical. The Nittany Lions fell 24-20 to Wisconsin and then were beaten 34-13 by Northwestern, a stretch that has turned attention back to a roster built largely through transfers and the growing pains that can come with that kind of overhaul.
James Franklin has pointed to consistency and physicality as the main concerns, and linebacker Cael Brezina has echoed that message from the defensive side. With USC next on the schedule, the coaching staff is leaning into more physical practices and a return to fundamentals, hoping that the group can sharpen the details before the Big Ten grind raises the stakes even further. [Read more 🡒]