Penn State and Michigan look like they’re walking the same ugly road right now, and the matchup Saturday feels less like a blueblood showcase than a survival test.
Both programs are being led by first-year coaches who came over from the Big 12, Matt Campbell from Iowa State and Kyle Whittingham from Utah, and both teams have spent too much time searching for any kind of rhythm on offense. In conference play, Penn State sits No. 15 in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 18.7 points per game. Michigan is even lower at No. 17, putting up just 16.5.
The numbers around the red zone are even harsher. Michigan has managed only two touchdowns there in its two Big Ten games, while Penn State keeps settling for field goals when it needs six. That’s a big reason the over-under is only 42.5, a line that says oddsmakers expect something in the neighborhood of a 21-20 grinder - or maybe a 35-6 slog.
Neither team looks like a College Football Playoff group this season, and maybe not anytime soon. But there’s still a clear question that could decide the game: Michigan’s offense has been just as much of a problem as Penn State’s defense, so whichever side blinks first may control Saturday.
After Penn State’s loss to USC, tight end Andrew Rappleyea offered a glimpse into how this group sees itself. He said this team, made up of Lion holdovers and Iowa State newcomers, is handling adversity better than the Nittany Lions of 2025 did.
"We've been in this situation," Rappleyea said. "I was here last year.
The guys pointed fingers. The guys turned on each other.
It's all about how you're going to respond and I promise you, that will not happen because we have a great coach leading us in that locker room."
Penn State’s 0-3 start in the Big Ten has raised plenty of questions about Campbell across Nittany Nation, but Rappleyea made it clear the players are still behind him.
"He's a coach you want to play for," he said. "Coach Campbell -- he's a football guy. He loves us, he wants the best for us."
Campbell and Whittingham have met once before, with Iowa State beating Utah 31-28 in 2024.
Personnel movement could become a bigger part of the conversation if Penn State keeps slipping. Last week, Marcus Neal was benched because the staff was worried about his pass coverage. Neal had been the highest-rated defender among the Iowa State transfers, but he was also in the middle of a Penn State run defense that got pushed around at Northwestern.
If the losing continues, the next realistic point for a shakeup may come after the open date before the Oct. 31 game against Purdue. That could mean more work for backup quarterback Alex Manske.
There were also some regrets from offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser after last week, especially over the lack of targets for tight end Ben Brahmer and the fact that third-team running back Quinton Martin never got a touch. Martin has been the odd man out in a tailback rotation that hasn’t really been able to rotate three backs.
At quarterback, Michigan will lean on highly paid sophomore Bryce Underwood, whose profile comes with plenty of baggage: he’s a strong runner and a bad passer. The Big House crowd, according to this read of the situation, is not likely to wait around forever. Behind him is Tommy Carr, the grandson of Lloyd Carr and brother of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr.
Penn State also needs more from Rocco Becht, who has to play like the most experienced quarterback in college football today.
One area where the Nittany Lions have been more settled is at running back. The staff clearly prefers Carson Hansen as the top option, and he carried 14 times for 28 yards against USC, added a catch, and nearly got a halfback option off before the Trojans sniffed it out. Even with faster options available, Hansen was also back with Zay Robinson on kickoffs.
The schedule doesn’t make life any easier for Michigan after this one. The Wolverines still have home games against Indiana and UCLA, and road trips to Oregon and Ohio State still remain.
Beyond the field, Thursday’s announcement that the College Football Playoff will expand to 24 teams next year was labeled an even worse decision because of the injury risk, compared with the watered-down NCAA Basketball Tournament, which will have 76 teams in 2027.
And for those looking beyond Saturday, a five-minute video of Campbell speaking to a room full of potential recruits has gone viral, with the recommendation to track it down for a worthwhile look at the coach and the qualities he values.
In Other News...
Penn State Could Be Getting A Familiar Name Back For A Key Need
Penn State may be getting a familiar name back at just the right time, with LaVar Arrington II expected to return to the football team after the bye week. The son of College Football Hall of Famer LaVar Arrington spent last season contributing on special teams, and his return adds another layer to a defense looking for help in the right spots.
Coach Matt Campbell said the staff still has to decide whether Arrington II will line up at linebacker or defensive end, a choice that will shape how quickly he can make an impact. After missing time this season because of injury, his comeback gives Penn State another option to consider as it tries to maximize his value on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Faces A New Injury Concern Before Michigan Showdown
Penn State got a little clarity, and a little more uncertainty, when the Big Ten-mandated availability reports came out ahead of Saturdays trip to Ann Arbor. Two starters were upgraded and removed from the report, which is the kind of update every staff wants to see this time of year, but a starting wide receiver was added as questionable, leaving the Nittany Lions with one more situation to monitor before they face Michigan.
Michigans report stayed unchanged, with players still spread across probable, questionable, doubtful and out designations. Penn State will have two more availability reports before kickoff, so the picture could shift again before the Nittany Lions take the field in one of the biggest games on their schedule. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Offense May Be Forced Into A Shakeup At Worst Time
Penn States offense is still searching for a cleaner rhythm after a stretch in which the scoring has dried up at the wrong time. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser pointed to a few of the issues that have piled up, from the teams production in three Big Ten losses to the absence of wide receiver Koby Howard because of injury, all while the unit has continued to fight through red zone inconsistency.
Mouser also left open the possibility of changes up front, and freshman receiver Amarion Jackson could see more opportunities as the staff looks for a spark. The Nittany Lions have turned 14 of 26 trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, a mark that reflects both the promise and the frustration of an offense trying to find answers before the schedule gets any tighter. [Read more 🡒]