Two games into the 2026 season, Penn State’s postseason picture is already taking shape - and most of the national projection boards have the Nittany Lions headed for Orlando.
That’s the common thread in this week’s bowl roundup: Penn State is showing up as the top Big Ten team outside the College Football Playoff, which would send it to the Citrus Bowl against an SEC opponent on New Year’s Day. It’s a solid landing spot for a program that has gone through plenty of change over the past year.
Still, one outlet went a step further and put Penn State in the playoff mix.
No. 14 Penn State returns to action Saturday against Buffalo at Beaver Stadium. Kickoff is set for noon ET, the game will air on BTN, and the Nittany Lions are huge favorites over the Bulls from the MAC.
Here’s where the projections have Penn State going:
CBS Sports has Penn State in the Citrus Bowl against Alabama on Jan. 2 in Orlando. That matchup would bring the Nittany Lions and Crimson Tide back together for the first time since their two-game series in 2010 and 2011, when Alabama won 24-3 in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and 27-11 in Beaver Stadium. Penn State trails the all-time series, 10-5, and has gone 1-3 in four Citrus Bowl appearances.
USA Today is the outlier, projecting Penn State into the College Football Playoff as the No. 11 seed and sending the Nittany Lions to Baton Rouge to face No. 6 LSU.
In that setup, Penn State would be the last at-large team in, with Pac-12 champion Boise State landing at No. 12.
The winner would move on to face No. 3 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
It would be a compelling opening-round matchup, and USA Today has LSU advancing to Pasadena.
ESPN split its projections, with Kyle Bonagura putting Penn State in the Citrus Bowl against Tennessee and Mark Schlabach slotting the Nittany Lions against Alabama. The Tennessee angle carries some clear storylines: linebacker Amare Campbell, defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam and safety Dejuan Lane are now with the Volunteers after leaving Penn State during the winter, while Chaz Coleman also landed in Knoxville before leaving the program.
Jim Knowles is also there now as defensive coordinator after a brief stop in State College. Penn State leads the series 3-2, with the last meeting coming in the 2007 Outback Bowl.
The teams also met in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day 1994, a 31-13 Penn State win.
Athlon Sports also projected Penn State vs. Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and that comes with its own subplot: Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer was viewed by some as a possible candidate for the Penn State opening that eventually went to Matt Campbell.
RotoWire had Penn State at No. 13 in its College Football Playoff projections, which would leave the Nittany Lions just outside the 12-team field.
College Football News and PFSN both moved Penn State to the Citrus Bowl against Texas A&M on Jan. 2.
College Football News said the projection was an upgrade from the ReliaQuest Bowl, while PFSN bumped Penn State from the Music City Bowl to the Citrus Bowl. The Aggies would also bring another coaching-search angle, with Mike Elko reportedly receiving a contract extension to stay in College Station.
Penn State has met Texas A&M twice in bowl games before, beating the Aggies in the 1999 and 2007 Alamo Bowls, and the two schools split a home-and-home in 1979 and 1980 with the road team winning both games.
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Penn State May Have Found A Bigger Weapon Than Fans Realized
Penn State has spent the first two weeks seeing Zay Robinson in a little bit of everything, and the early returns suggest the redshirt freshman transfer from Iowa State may be carving out a bigger role than many expected. In the 45-0 win over Marshall, Robinson broke loose for a 39-yard touchdown, adding another flash point to an opening stretch in which he has already made an impact as a receiver and on special teams.
Robinson has handled punts and kickoffs, caught several passes and lined up at multiple receiver spots, giving the Nittany Lions a versatile option who can change field position and help the offense in different ways. His growing role has drawn praise from teammates and coach Matt Campbell, and Penn State will keep watching to see just how far his expanded workload can go as the season develops. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Still Has One Big Problem To Sort Out Before Wisconsin
Penn State has opened the season 2-0 and gets Buffalo before the schedule stiffens and Big Ten play begins, but the next step is as much about answers as it is about another win. The staff still has some sorting to do on the back end with its safety rotation, and there are fresh faces up front trying to settle into a run defense that will be tested more seriously once league play arrives.
The bigger issue, though, may be on offense, where the rushing game has not yet given the Nittany Lions the kind of reliable edge they want heading toward Wisconsin. Buffalo offers a useful checkpoint to see what works, what needs tweaking and how quickly Penn State can get its ground attack pointed in the right direction before the games start carrying more weight. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State May Watch Ohio State Steal Another Early Recruiting Win
Jordan Halls recruitment has quickly become one to watch for Penn State, which was the first Power Four program to offer the Ohio running back after his decommitment from Miami (OH). The three-star prospect has drawn attention from both Penn State and Ohio State, giving the Nittany Lions an early opening in a class-building race that matters as much for the future of the backfield as it does for bragging rights.
Ohio State is now hosting Hall for a visit, and that has put Penn State in the familiar position of trying to hold off a regional power with deep ties in the state. For both programs, the interest goes beyond one player, since each is looking to secure running back help in its 2027 class, but the current momentum appears to favor the Buckeyes unless Penn State can change the conversation soon. [Read more 🡒]