Penn State fatigue is real in the wrestling world. That much is easy to understand when a program has claimed 12 of the last 14 NCAA Championships, ripped off 86 straight dual-meet wins and built the kind of dominance that keeps everyone else chasing shadows.
Cael Sanderson’s numbers only make the whole thing feel even more lopsided. He owns 12 national championships and has only 16 career dual-meet losses.
So yes, everybody is looking for the team that finally knocks the Nittany Lions off the throne.
Just not yet.
Plenty of wrestling outlets are leaning on the analytics and giving Oklahoma State around a 17% shot at winning the national title. But the other side of that same model still has Penn State north of 80%, and that’s the part that matters most. Everyone may have a puncher’s chance, but when one team wins the championship in more than four out of every five simulations, that does not look like a sport on the verge of a new order.
The biggest departure people will focus on is Levi Haines.
Haines left after a Penn State career that was as clean and decorated as they come: 99-4, four Big Ten titles, four-time All-American and two-time NCAA champion. There had been some uncertainty about whether he might return, thanks to eligibility questions tied to the 2022 season, but his exit still looms large.
Even so, his departure may open more doors than it closes.
If FloWrestling’s early rankings are right and reigning Hodge Trophy winner Mitchell Mesenbrink moves from 165 to 174, that creates room for both PJ Duke and Tyler Kasak. Without that shift, those two could have been headed for one of the most compelling lineup battles Penn State has had in a while. Instead, the Nittany Lions may get both.
Then there’s Masanosuke Ono, who might be the most intriguing new piece in the mix. He already stands out as one of the world’s most dangerous freestyle wrestlers, and now he’s turning his attention to folkstyle. Putting a wrestler with that kind of international résumé into a lineup that just broke NCAA scoring records doesn’t look like a setback for Penn State.
Marcus Blaze adds another layer.
He’s wrestling at the World Championships at 61 kilograms, which makes 133 pounds the obvious folkstyle landing spot. His offseason results only add to the intrigue.
Blaze won the U.S. Open by beating Ben Davino.
At Final X in June, he punched his ticket to the U.S. World Team by defeating reigning NCAA champion Jax Forrest two matches to one.
He then won gold at the Poland Open, closing things out with an 11-0 technical fall over Kyle Burwick.
Those names matter. Davino won the Big Ten championship and beat Blaze in a tiebreaker in the NCAA semifinals at 133.
Forrest won the NCAA championship. Blaze has now shown he can hang with both.
That’s what makes Oklahoma State such a real threat. The Cowboys are loaded, and David Taylor has the kind of foundation coaches dream about. Jax Forrest, Sergio Vega and Landon Robideau give Oklahoma State three NCAA champions to build around.
The matchups around this thing are mouthwatering.
If Mesenbrink moves to 174, he walks into a brutal field that could include Nebraska’s Christopher Minto, Michigan’s Beau Mantanona and Iowa’s Gabe Arnold, with Stanford transfer Lorenzo Norman also capable of making noise right away for Oklahoma State.
Josh Barr could be in the Hodge Trophy conversation, but Oklahoma State’s Cody Merrill is a legitimate challenge and a possible NCAA finals opponent.
PJ Duke has already made people pay attention, and LaDarion Lockett could be the kind of wrestler who matches him best.
That’s why Penn State and Oklahoma State feels like it could become the defining rivalry in college wrestling.
Still, there’s a difference between being the biggest threat and being better.
Dynasties do fall eventually, and Penn State’s will too. Maybe Oklahoma State ends up being the program that does it.
But going into this season, Penn State does not look vulnerable. It looks like a team that may have improved.
And until somebody proves otherwise on the mat, the wrestling world still belongs to Penn State.
In Other News...
Temple Heads To Penn State With One Problem Fans Will Notice
Temples trip to Penn State comes with a little more uncertainty than a normal September road test, starting up front where the Owls are already shorthanded. KC Keeler confirmed that starting left tackle Giakoby Hills will be out for six weeks, a significant blow to an offensive line that has to deal with one of the bigger fronts on the schedule.
The injury picture does not stop there, either. Starting tackle Kevin Terry and left guard Eric King are both game-time decisions, which leaves Temple waiting to see how much of its protection plan will be available by kickoff. The quarterback situation is still unsettled as well, with the Owls choosing between Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard for the starting job, adding another layer of uncertainty to a matchup that already looks demanding. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Just Put Its Recruiting Board On Notice
Matt Campbells first game at Penn State doubled as a recruiting showcase, with multiple prospects from the 2027 through 2029 classes on hand. The guest list included current commits and a handful of targets the staff is still trying to bring into the fold, a reminder that big-game Saturdays in State College are as much about the future as the present.
Among the names in attendance were 5-star cornerback Nasir Richardson from the 2028 class and 4-star edge rusher DJ Dockery from the 2029 class, both the kind of young blue-chippers Penn State wants to keep circling. The staff also added to the board by extending an offer to 3-star defensive lineman McCoy Richardson, a prospect viewed as a possible flip from Wake Forest, leaving the rest of that recruiting picture to keep developing after the visit. [Read more 🡒]
DAnton Lynn Just Raised A Big Penn State Defense Question
Penn States secondary is already looking a little different as the season settles in, and DAnton Lynn made it clear why true freshman Josiah Zayas is getting first crack at cornerback. Lynn pointed to Zayas mental strength and steady development, a notable endorsement for a young player stepping into a demanding spot on a defense that is still sorting itself out.
Lynn also signaled that the scheme itself is going to keep evolving, with the staff planning to add complexity gradually rather than overload the group early. With Temple next on the road, he emphasized communication and preparation as the big keys, which leaves an obvious question hanging over the defense: how quickly can a young corner and a growing playbook handle the next test? [Read more 🡒]