Penn State is starting to get a little buzz as a College Football Playoff sleeper, and the reason has everything to do with the 2026 schedule.
What was once described as “seemingly impossible” to predict is now being framed as a setup that could let the Nittany Lions outplay expectations. USA Today’s Blake Toppmeyer recently ran through five championship sleeper picks, and Penn State was one of them.
USC made the list too, but for the opposite reason: the Trojans’ path is loaded with heavyweight matchups. Penn State, meanwhile, got the nod because it avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
That matters. Penn State is staring at one of the Big Ten’s easiest slates in 2026.
The Nittany Lions won’t play a team that won 10 games last season, and their opponents’ returning winning percentage of 48.3 percent ties Navy for 110th nationally. Only three teams on the schedule - USC, Michigan and Washington - won nine games a year ago.
“Matt Campbell couldn’t have gotten a kinder welcome into the Big Ten,” Toppmeyer wrote. “If USC drew the Big Ten’s schedule of doom, then Penn State got the boon.”
Still, this isn’t a total free pass. Toppmeyer described it as a “cupcake feast,” but there are some real spots on the calendar that could bite. Penn State’s road trips to Michigan and Washington are no cakewalk, and the Nittany Lions will also be the team helping Northwestern open its new Ryan Field on the first Friday of October.
The rest of the schedule is lighter on paper, but not empty of danger. Beyond USC, Michigan and Washington - all of whom rank at least 21st in ESPN’s SP+ - Penn State has only two more opponents inside the top 50: Minnesota at No. 45 and Northwestern at No. 49.
The other big reason for the sleeper talk is experience, starting with fourth-year quarterback Rocco Becht. Penn State is bringing back one of the Big Ten’s most seasoned rosters in terms of starts and snaps, and Becht stands out as one of the sport’s most proven veterans.
If he delivers, the Nittany Lions could absolutely cash in on that favorable setup. Becht enters with the most returning starts among FBS quarterbacks at 39, along with 26 wins, and Penn State’s path to being that surprise contender runs straight through him.
“Rocco was a huge piece of why we were able to climb out of the hole at Iowa State,” Campbell said. “His leadership and his humility and just his toughness and grit were huge pieces of why we had the success we did. Some of the greatest moments in the program’s history are under Rocco.
“No matter what happened the last three-and-a-half quarters [of a game], that's a guy that you want with the ball in his hand at the end of a football game. I think he's proven it with videotape evidence. I always say, nobody's had more game-winning touchdown drives on the last drive of a game than what Rocco Becht has in college football, and that's been pretty impressive.”
Penn State opens the 2026 season on Sept. 5 at home against Marshall.
In Other News...
Penn State QB Room Finally Gets An Encouraging Sign Fans Needed
Penn States quarterback picture has been hovering around one obvious issue for a while now: depth beyond the 2026 season. With senior Rocco Becht set to move on, the Nittany Lions have been looking for signs that the room has another option ready to grow into the job, and redshirt freshman Alex Manske is starting to provide at least some of that reassurance. After missing spring practice, Manske recently made his first public appearance with the team, a small but meaningful step for a player whose development has been slowed by lost reps.
For Penn State, the encouraging part is not just that Manske is back around the program, but that both Becht and the coaching staff have spoken positively about what he could become as a backup and, eventually, a potential starter. He saw limited action in 2025, so there is still plenty of climb left in front of him, but the return to visibility matters in a quarterback room where every practice rep carries extra weight. The next question is whether that momentum can turn into real progress once the season starts to push the depth chart into sharper focus. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Makes Big Push For Another Elite Young Running Back
Penn State has started making another early push for a young backfield target, extending a scholarship offer to rising high school junior Jayshawn Mitchell as the Nittany Lions continue to lean on their reputation for producing NFL-caliber running backs. Mitchell already has a crowded offer sheet with 15 schools in the mix, a sign that the race for the Class of 2028 prospect is taking shape well before his recruiting process has really settled in.
For Penn State, the timing matters. The program is trying to keep its pipeline at running back stocked after recent departures to the NFL, and it is competing in the same space as programs such as Oklahoma, SMU, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Landing elite young talent at the position has long been part of the pitch in Happy Valley, and this is another test of whether that message still resonates early with one of the top names on the board. [Read more 🡒]
James Peoples Could Change Everything In Penn State's New Look Backfield
James Peoples arrives in State College with the kind of profile Penn State can use to reshape a backfield that needs more than one answer. The transfer from Ohio State showed enough this spring to draw attention for the same reasons he did as a recruit - he can run it, catch it and bring a different gear to the offense. In a room that will lean on Carson Hansen, Peoples offers the look of a back who can keep defenses honest and make the most of limited touches.
What makes that especially interesting is how quickly he has started to look comfortable in the system. Spring practice gave the staff a clearer picture of his versatility, and the buzz around him has centered on the idea that he can add a big-play element Penn State did not always have last season. If that growth continues, the Lions may have found the kind of complementary piece that can change the tone of a backfield without needing to carry it alone. [Read more 🡒]