Penn State’s path to the College Football Playoff is suddenly showing up in the projections, and not just in the fine print.
In the latest bowl roundup released Wednesday, five of nine projections put the Nittany Lions in the 12-team field. Two of those have Penn State as the No. 9 seed, and two more slot the Nittany Lions at No.
- After three wins against a relatively manageable non-conference schedule, Penn State has worked itself into the October conversation as Big Ten play begins.
That said, the usual September warning still applies. A lot can change before Dec. 6, when the postseason bracket is set. But in college football, perception matters, and Penn State’s current position is worth noting.
The Nittany Lions, ranked No. 13, open Big Ten play Saturday against Wisconsin at Beaver Stadium. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m.
ET, with the game streaming on Peacock. Penn State entered the week as roughly a 10-point favorite.
The most intriguing playoff projections have Penn State in some lively first-round matchups.
CBS Sports projected the Nittany Lions against No. 8 seed Ole Miss in Oxford. That would put Penn State in a setting with plenty of juice, especially with the Rebels drawing attention after their win over Lane Kiffin and LSU and with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss emerging as one of the sport’s most entertaining players.
It would also be a rematch of the 2023 Peach Bowl, which Ole Miss won. The winner in that projection would move on to face No. 1 seed Miami.
USA Today’s Erick Smith had Penn State meeting No. 7 seed BYU, a pairing loaded with storylines tied to Kalani Sitake, Crumbl and the coaching search drama. Penn State and BYU have played three times, with the Nittany Lions winning twice, including the 1989 Holiday Bowl.
BYU won the most recent meeting, 30-17 in Provo in 1992. In that projection, No. 2 seed Notre Dame would be next.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach also landed on a Miami matchup, with the Hurricanes as the No. 6 seed. That one comes with its own history: it’s the 40th anniversary of Penn State’s 1986 national championship team, which beat Miami 14-10 in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl.
Penn State leads the all-time series 7-6, though Miami has taken four of the last five, including a 33-7 win in State College in 2001. Miami is 3-0 and ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25 Poll behind quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney.
In Schlabach’s bracket, No. 3 seed Notre Dame would await.
Another ESPN projection, this one from Kyle Bonagura, sends Penn State to Ole Miss again, but as the No. 7 seed in a draw that would run straight through a brutal SEC finish for the Rebels. Ole Miss still has Florida, Missouri, Texas and Georgia on the schedule, along with Auburn and Oklahoma.
Coach Pete Golding’s team has one of the season’s biggest wins so far, but the resume could look very different by the end. No. 2 seed Indiana would be next in that bracket.
There are also a few non-playoff landing spots floating around.
Bryan Fischer of Sports Illustrated projected Penn State to the Citrus Bowl against Alabama. The Crimson Tide are undefeated and ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25 Poll, but they still have plenty of difficult games ahead and are relying on first-year starter Keelon Russell.
Athlon Sports had Penn State in the Citrus Bowl against Tennessee. The Nittany Lions have won three straight bowl meetings with the Volunteers - the 1992 Fiesta Bowl, the 1994 Citrus Bowl and the 2007 Outback Bowl - and lead the series 3-2 overall.
Tennessee is No. 14 in the AP Top 25 Poll, one spot behind Penn State, and gets No. 1 Texas this weekend at Neyland Stadium.
RotoWire went back to the playoff picture and paired Penn State with Alabama as the No. 8 seed. Alabama is 1-for-2 in making the College Football Playoff in the 12-team era, missing it in 2024 after reaching it last season.
Penn State is also 1-for-2, beating SMU at home and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in 2024 before falling to Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. In that projection, No. 1 seed Notre Dame would be waiting in the Cotton Bowl.
College Football News projected Penn State to the Citrus Bowl against Ole Miss. The Nittany Lions are 1-3 all-time in that bowl, with the lone win coming over Tennessee to close the 1993 season and the most recent appearance ending in a loss to Kentucky after the 2018 season.
Ole Miss has never played in the Citrus Bowl. The outlet also noted a potential Citrus Bowl matchup with Texas A&M, though the Aggies are currently No. 23 in the AP Top 25 Poll after a home loss to Kentucky last weekend.
For now, Penn State’s place in the postseason picture is still early, but it is real enough to show up across the bracket boards.
In Other News...
Penn State Staffer Faces Serious Off-Field Legal Trouble
A Penn State assistant coach is now dealing with an off-field situation that is drawing attention in State College and around the program. Jordan Lucas, the Nittany Lions assistant cornerbacks coach, was charged with two misdemeanor counts of DUI and three summary traffic violations after police found him asleep in a vehicle downtown with a blood alcohol level nearly three times the legal limit.
The stop came after officers found the vehicle illegally positioned in a crosswalk, with Lucas also listed as having a suspended drivers license and an expired vehicle registration. Penn State acknowledged the charges and said Lucas remains with the program while the legal matter moves forward, leaving the university to manage both the public fallout and the uncertainty around what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Offensive Line Just Got Thinner At The Worst Time
Penn States offensive line depth took another hit at an unwelcome time, with Will Tompkins ruled out for the season because of injury, according to coach Matt Campbell. Tompkins had played 31 snaps across the first three games after transferring in from Iowa State, giving the Nittany Lions another experienced body in a position group that can never have enough of them.
The setback leaves Penn State without a player it had hoped could help stabilize things as the year unfolded, and it also delays any chance to see how he might have fit into the rotation over a full season. There is still some long-term silver lining: Tompkins is expected to keep four years of eligibility after this season, so his Penn State story is far from over even if this one now pauses before it really got going. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States RB Battle Just Got Tougher To Ignore Entering Big Ten Play
Penn State spent the nonconference slate getting a closer look at four running backs, and the rotation did not make the answer any simpler. Carson Hansen, James Peoples, Quinton Martin Jr. and Cam Wallace all got chances to show what they can do, but the way those carries were distributed also made it clear this job is still open as Big Ten play arrives.
Martin stood out most against Buffalo, where his versatility in the passing game added another layer to his case, while Peoples continued to show growth and a knack for finding the end zone. Those two now look like the clearest candidates to head the depth chart, even if the staff has not committed to one lead option yet, and the coming conference games should tell whether Penn State leans toward the more dynamic all-purpose threat or the back who has been quickest to turn touches into points. [Read more 🡒]