A year ago, Penn State found itself on the outside looking in when the Big Ten Tournament tipped off. The Nittany Lions finished 17th in the standings and missed the cut in a 15-team field - a frustrating outcome that head coach Mike Rhoades didn’t shy away from criticizing.
But this season, the Big Ten’s expansion to 18 teams has changed the postseason landscape. Now, every team gets a shot at the tournament, regardless of record, and for a Penn State team still searching for consistency, that’s a much-needed lifeline.
With just five games left in the regular season, Penn State is locked in for a trip to the United Center in Chicago when the Big Ten Tournament begins on March 10. The question now is all about seeding - and what kind of path the Nittany Lions might face once the bracket is set.
Where Things Stand Now
At 2-13 in conference play, Penn State is currently tied with Northwestern for 17th in the Big Ten standings. But because the Wildcats won the head-to-head matchup earlier this season, they hold the tiebreaker, which drops Penn State to the No. 18 seed as of now.
If the tournament started today, the Nittany Lions would open against No. 15 seed Maryland in the first round. That’s a tough draw - the Terrapins handed Penn State a 96-73 loss earlier this season. But that’s the nature of March: survive, advance, and maybe surprise a few people along the way.
Should Penn State get past Maryland, the road doesn’t get any easier. Next up would be 10th-seeded Indiana in the second round, followed by No.
7 UCLA in the third. If they somehow make it through that gauntlet, a quarterfinal matchup with No. 2 seed Illinois would be waiting.
It’s a steep climb, but at least there’s a path - something they didn’t have last year.
What’s Ahead This Week
The Nittany Lions have a chance to shake up their seeding this week with two pivotal matchups. First up: a home game against Rutgers on Wednesday.
Then they hit the road for a Saturday showdown with No. 9 Nebraska.
Both games carry significant implications, not just for Penn State’s momentum heading into March, but for how the bottom of the Big Ten standings could shake out.
Here’s where things get interesting. If Penn State can go 2-0 this week - and that’s a big if - they could climb as high as the No. 14 seed.
That would require some help: Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland, and Oregon would all need to stay under four Big Ten wins after this week’s games. But it’s within the realm of possibility.
Right now, Rutgers and Maryland are tied for 15th at 3-11, while Oregon sits at 2-12, just ahead of Penn State and Northwestern. The head-to-head tiebreakers aren’t in Penn State’s favor - they’ve already dropped games to Northwestern, Maryland, and Oregon - so the cleanest path forward is to win and hope those teams don’t.
A 1-1 week wouldn’t move the needle much. Whether the win comes against Rutgers or Nebraska, the most likely outcome in that scenario is Penn State staying at No.
- And if they go 0-2, they’ll remain at the bottom as the No. 18 seed, with a tough road ahead in the tournament.
The Bottom Line
Penn State may not be where it wants to be in the standings, but the expanded Big Ten Tournament format gives them something they didn’t have last year: a second chance. With a few wins down the stretch - and some help from around the conference - the Nittany Lions could improve their seeding and avoid the toughest early matchups. But if the losses keep piling up, they’ll be staring down a brutal bracket from the No. 18 spot.
Either way, they’ll be in Chicago. And in March, sometimes just being in the building is all you need.