Penn State is still sitting ahead of Pitt in ESPN’s FPI, even though the two teams have taken very different paths through the season.
Pitt is 5-0 and has already stacked up three wins over Power 4 opponents. Penn State, meanwhile, is 3-2 and still searching for a Power 4 win.
But in ESPN’s predictive rankings, the Nittany Lions are No. 20 and the Panthers are No. 23.
That doesn’t mean Penn State has the better resume right now. Pitt’s body of work is stronger, and that gap should show up in the human polls.
Penn State is currently No. 22 in the Coaches Poll, but it’s expected to fall out. The AP Poll has already moved on from the Nittany Lions.
Penn State had a chance to climb back into the AP with a win at Northwestern, but instead laid an egg.
Still, this is FPI, and FPI has always been more about projection than résumé. ESPN describes it as a “ predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football.
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”
It’s not the first time the system has produced something that looks odd on the surface. Last season, after Penn State fell to Indiana and dropped to 3-6, the Nittany Lions were still No. 21 in FPI. That was notable enough that IU coach Curt Cignetti brought it up before facing Penn State.
“They’re in the top 25 in the ESPN [College] Football Power Index,” Cignetti said at his weekly press conference before the Penn State game. “Still the same guys they started the year with for the most part that was ranked No. 1 to No. 3 in the country. So a lot of good football players at all positions, playing really hard.”
FPI has also been a little surprising in another way this season. Not long ago, Penn State was projected to win every game on its schedule. That’s almost still true.
ESPN now gives Penn State a 50-50 shot against Michigan, and the Nittany Lions are favored in every other game.
Next up is USC, with Penn State and the Trojans set for a 7:30 Saturday night kickoff in the annual White Out Game on NBC.
In Other News...
Penn State Heads Into White Out With One Huge Offensive Problem
Penn State heads into the White Out still searching for something more dependable on offense after Matt Campbell acknowledged the issues that surfaced in the loss to Northwestern. The head coach said the group has not settled into an identity, and he pointed to the need for better play across the unit as the Nittany Lions try to steady themselves in a big home atmosphere.
Koby Howard remains part of the longer-term conversation, with Campbell saying the wide receiver is still a few weeks away from returning. For now, the bigger concern is whether Penn State can turn frustration into structure, because Campbell has made clear that building a consistent team culture has to go hand in hand with fixing the offense. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Is Still Paying For Its James Franklin Decision
Penn States decision to move on from James Franklin in October came with a clear ambition attached to it: the program wanted a coach who could get it all the way to a national championship. Instead, the aftermath turned into a long and messy coaching search that stretched on, created recruiting damage and made it harder to line up the next head coach than the school likely expected when it made the move after a 3-3 start to the previous season.
Matt Campbell is now in his first year on the sideline, and the Nittany Lions are 3-2, but the broader picture still looks unsettled. Several candidates declined or withdrew during the search, and the on-field results have been uneven enough to keep the pressure on a program that made a bold bet on a higher ceiling and is still living with the costs of trying to reach it. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Transfer-Heavy Roster Faces A Bigger Big Ten Problem
Penn States promising climb from No. 18 to No. 13 has hit a rough patch in Big Ten play, with back-to-back losses exposing the kinds of issues that tend to show up when the schedule gets heavier and more physical. The Nittany Lions fell 24-20 to Wisconsin and then were beaten 34-13 by Northwestern, a stretch that has turned attention back to a roster built largely through transfers and the growing pains that can come with that kind of overhaul.
James Franklin has pointed to consistency and physicality as the main concerns, and linebacker Cael Brezina has echoed that message from the defensive side. With USC next on the schedule, the coaching staff is leaning into more physical practices and a return to fundamentals, hoping that the group can sharpen the details before the Big Ten grind raises the stakes even further. [Read more 🡒]