Penn State enters Big Ten play with its playoff path getting clearer by the week, but the margin for error is still razor thin.
The Nittany Lions are 3-0, and after rolling past Buffalo 55-13 to finish the preseason slate, they climbed two spots to No. 12 in ESPN’s College Football Playoff Index. Their playoff outlook has also kept moving in the right direction: ESPN’s FPI now gives Penn State a 38.1-percent chance to make the playoff, up from 29 percent after Week 2.
That rise has been building since the summer, when Penn State was viewed as a “sleeper” contender for the 12-team field. But head coach Matt Campbell isn’t ready to declare anything after three games.
“Not where we need to be,” Campbell said last Saturday when asked where his team stands after three non-conference wins. “But I think a team that has certainly grown in different entities each week. [It's] still a team that, in my opinion, has got so much ability, and [there were] some things that were focal points for us today, and then we grew in some areas.
"... This is college football, and I think our ability to grow from week three to week four will be reallyimportant. But I appreciated their urgency and the way we played, and the sense of physicality and our details.”
The numbers are encouraging. Penn State sits fourth among Big Ten teams in the FPI, behind Oregon, which is still three spots ahead of the Nittany Lions despite losing at Oklahoma State in Week 2. Penn State also grades out as one of the more efficient teams in the country, with top-30 marks in offense (25th), defense (7th) and special teams (28th).
ESPN’s playoff predictor also likes the way Penn State’s Big Ten schedule sets up. The Nittany Lions are not an underdog in any of their nine conference games.
Their toughest remaining matchup is the Oct. 17 trip to Michigan, which ESPN sees as a 50-50 game. Penn State has a 69-percent chance to beat Northwestern in its first Big Ten road game on Oct. 2 and a 70-percent chance to beat USC in the White Out.
Still, the schedule offers no breathing room. Analyst Joel Klatt called it a “jackpot,” and ESPN ranks it 57th in remaining strength. That means the difference between a playoff berth and staying home could come down to a single slip.
ESPN’s numbers make that point pretty plainly. A 10-2 Penn State team that loses to USC and Michigan has an 11-percent chance to make the playoff. A 10-2 team that beats USC but falls to Northwestern and Michigan checks in at 12 percent.
For now, Penn State’s first conference test comes Saturday against Wisconsin, a 5 p.m. ET kickoff at Beaver Stadium. The Badgers are 2-1 and, like the Nittany Lions, they’re coming off a big win over a MAC opponent after beating Eastern Michigan 54-10.
Wisconsin did it without running back Abu Sama III, who averaged 6.8 yards per carry in the team’s first two games. Luke Fickell said Sama was cleared to play against Eastern Michigan but was held out as a “game-time decision.”
Campbell and the 24 former Iowa State players now with Penn State know Sama well. He rushed for 732 yards and five touchdowns for the Cyclones last season before transferring to Wisconsin.
Penn State is a 10-point favorite, according to DraftKings.
In Other News...
Penn State Just Got Fresh Fuel For Its Scheduling Debate
Penn States home date with Buffalo in Week 3 still drew a massive crowd by most college football standards, but the official attendance of 103,817 was the smallest at Beaver Stadium since 2019, not counting the fan-less 2020 season. It arrived at a time when the Nittany Lions non-conference schedule is already under a microscope, with plenty of noise around whether the program should be pushing harder for more demanding early-season matchups.
Matt Campbell said he has not yet discussed scheduling with the athletic director, and that sort of ambiguity only adds to a conversation that is likely to keep coming back as the sport changes. With the playoff format now expanded, future scheduling decisions may be viewed through a different lens, and Penn State is right in the middle of the debate over whether strong gate numbers are enough when the conversation turns to resume-building games. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Has A Personal Reason To Mourn Ernie Accorsi
Penn State has another familiar NFL tie to reflect on with the death of Ernie Accorsi at 84, a longtime league executive whose influence stretched well beyond the front office. Before his work as general manager of the Giants, Colts and Browns made him one of footballs most respected builders, Accorsi had already left his mark in State College as a Penn State player, a connection that gives his passing a more personal weight for the program.
Accorsis football life was defined by the kind of moves that changed franchises, from helping bring Tom Coughlin to New York to helping set up the draft-day path to Eli Manning. The Giants later credited him with helping shape their 2007 Super Bowl run, and his place in multiple halls of fame reflects how widely he was admired across the sport, including by those who knew him long before his NFL fame. [Read more 🡒]
Chase Sowells Path To Penn State Says Plenty About Matt Campbell
Chase Sowells decision to head to Penn State says as much about Matt Campbell as it does about the wide receivers own priorities. According to Sowells father, the receiver passed on bigger money from other schools, including Florida, to play for Campbell, a detail that fits the larger picture around this move. Campbell has long carried a reputation for building real trust with his players, and Penn State looks to be benefiting from that pull.
The Nittany Lions have already seen plenty of Iowa State players follow Campbell to State College, a sign that the coachs influence travels well beyond one roster. For Penn State, that kind of loyalty matters because it can help make a transition feel less like a reset and more like a continuation of something already established. Sowells path adds another layer to that trend, even if the full impact of the move will take time to sort out. [Read more 🡒]