Penn State’s road to the College Football Playoff is starting to come into focus, and the next stretch will tell us plenty about Matt Campbell’s team.
The Nittany Lions are 3-0, unbeaten and largely unbothered so far in 2026. They’ve rolled past Marshall, handled a test at Temple and blown out Buffalo.
There have been no embarrassing losses, no nail-biters and no off-field noise. On paper, that’s exactly the kind of start Penn State needed.
But the challenge now changes completely.
Big Ten play is here, and with it comes the first real chance to judge whether Campbell’s Penn State team can turn a promising opening into something bigger. Wisconsin is up next.
Then comes a road trip to Northwestern, followed by back-to-back games against USC and Michigan that could end up defining the season. Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland round out the regular-season slate.
That schedule looked manageable in the preseason. It may look even more manageable now.
Penn State’s three preseason ranked opponents are still unbeaten, technically, but none of them have made a particularly strong case for themselves yet. No.
12 USC had trouble keeping Rutgers out of the end zone, and the Trojans’ next real test comes at No. 20 Oregon.
No. 18 Michigan lost to Western Michigan, plain and simple.
Washington slipped out of the AP Top 25 after beating Utah State, 16-14, as a four-touchdown favorite.
That kind of early turbulence matters. It’s a big reason Penn State’s path suddenly looks more navigable than it did in August.
Back then, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the Nittany Lions a 22% chance to reach the CFP. That number has now climbed to 37%, which is the 10th-best mark nationally and better than Oregon, Michigan and USC.
There’s a reason for that rise. Penn State has looked good, and the pieces have shown up in ways that matter: an explosive Rocco Becht, a ground game that’s growing and a nasty defense. The first three weeks have gone the Lions’ way.
Still, the real tests are coming.
Penn State hasn’t faced an offense like USC’s. It hasn’t played in an atmosphere like Michigan’s.
Wisconsin, which hung around for a half against Notre Dame, should be a battle on Saturday. Northwestern, which took it to Colorado, will have extra juice opening its new state-of-the-art stadium next Friday.
Minnesota could be a difficult out, too.
And that’s the point. Penn State doesn’t just have to beat the top names on the schedule.
It has to handle the middle of the Big Ten, too. That was something James Franklin’s teams did well for years before last season’s collapse.
Talent helps, and Penn State has it. But consistency and resolve matter just as much, and Campbell’s program hasn’t been tested enough yet for anyone to say how it will respond when the pressure really builds.
That uncertainty is even sharper now because of Koby Howard’s injury. The team’s leading receiver, who has starred for Campbell after riding the bench under James Franklin, is out indefinitely. It’s a major setback for Penn State’s offense, and it leaves more questions hanging over the season.
Over the next two months, the Nittany Lions will answer them one way or another.
Campbell, who both won big games and laid eggs at Iowa State, now gets a Big Ten run to show what kind of coach Penn State has hired for the long haul. The CFP path is there. Penn State fans can see it.
Soon enough, we’ll know whether Campbell’s team is good enough to take it.
In Other News...
Penn State Staffer Faces Serious Off-Field Legal Trouble
A Penn State football staffer is facing serious off-field legal trouble after police in downtown State College found Jordan Lucas asleep in a vehicle under circumstances that quickly turned into a legal issue. Lucas, an assistant cornerbacks coach, was charged with two misdemeanor counts of DUI along with three summary traffic violations after the stop, which also involved a suspended drivers license and expired vehicle registration.
Penn State has already acknowledged the charges and said Lucas remains with the program while the legal matter continues. For a coaching staff that has spent much of the season trying to keep the focus on the field, the situation adds an unwelcome off-field storyline involving a relatively new face in the defensive room. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Offensive Line Just Got Thinner At The Worst Time
Penn States offensive line took another hit at a bad time, with coach Matt Campbell announcing that Will Tompkins is done for the season because of injury. Tompkins had been part of the early rotation, logging 31 snaps over the first three games after transferring in from Iowa State, and he gave the Nittany Lions another experienced body in a group that can rarely afford to lose one.
The longer-term picture still offers something for Penn State to work with, since Tompkins is expected to keep four years of eligibility after this season. For now, though, his absence leaves the staff with one less option up front as the season keeps moving and the line depth gets put under more pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Just Lost A Dangerous Weapon Before Wisconsin
Penn States receiving group took a hit in the Week 3 win over Buffalo, and it comes at an awkward time with Big Ten play beginning. Koby Howard suffered an injury in that game and head coach Matt Campbell confirmed he will be out for an extended period, leaving the Nittany Lions without their most productive pass catcher heading into Wisconsin.
Howard has led Penn State in receiving yards through three games, so his absence forces a real adjustment in how the offense attacks the field. The injury is not season-ending, but missing him for the opener changes the shape of the passing game and puts more pressure on the rest of the receiving corps to fill the void. [Read more 🡒]