Michigan Stadium had every reason to feel wobbly Saturday night. The home crowd let loose at the coach, the offense and the quarterback, and Penn State was handed an opening it should have been able to exploit. Michigan had already thrown two first-half interceptions, scraped together just 80 yards on offense and looked as if it might have to pull its quarterback.
Penn State never took command of the moment.
Instead, the Nittany Lions let another winnable game slip away, falling 21-18 in Ann Arbor for their fourth straight loss. The defeat fit the pattern of the season: close enough to reach, not strong enough to finish.
In three of those four losses, Penn State either led in the fourth quarter or had the ball with a chance to tie or go ahead. Each time, it came up short.
Against Wisconsin, the collapse came late, with two touchdowns in the final four minutes and the winner coming on a 72-yard catch by a 265-pound tight end. USC answered Penn State’s three straight field goals with two second-half touchdowns, then forced a fumble on a 25-yard reception during Penn State’s last offensive series. And against Michigan, the second half belonged to the Wolverines after three Rocco Becht turnovers, capped by a fourth-quarter touchdown following a sack-fumble deep in Penn State territory.
Michigan managed one of its scores on a 43-yard rushing touchdown after producing only 37 yards in the first half.
“You’re right there to win the game,” Penn State coach Matt Campbell said after the loss to Michigan. “You’ve got to win in the margins right now, for sure, and we’re not doing that.”
That’s the heart of the problem. Penn State does not have enough players who tilt those margins.
Chase Sowell has been that kind of presence on offense, and maybe Koby Howard can become one when he returns. Tony Rojas fills that role on defense.
Beyond that, the roster has been mostly effort and rotation, not the kind of difference-makers that turn tight games.
And that raises the bigger question: was this first Penn State roster overrated from the start, especially the transfer class?
According to the 247Sports Composite, Penn State assembled the nation’s fourth-ranked transfer portal class. The recruiting service viewed the 40-player group as both deep and talented.
Nine players earned 4-star transfer grades: Becht, Sowell, running back Carson Hansen, tight ends Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle, defensive end Caleb Bacon and safeties Marcus Neal Jr., Jeremiah Cooper and Jamison Patton. Brahmer was the No. 1 tight end in the transfer class, Becht the No. 7 quarterback and Hansen the No. 9 running back.
Campbell and his staff were publicly bullish about the group. Campbell said Brahmer was the nation’s best tight end in 2024 before his injury, even though Tyler Warren won the Mackey Award for Penn State.
He said Becht had found “another gear” once he got healthy for camp. Left guard Trevor Buhr was labeled Penn State’s camp MVP.
The praise didn’t stop there. Neal and Cooper arrived with three all-Big 12 honors between them.
Cooper had been the 2022 Big 12 defensive freshman of the year, while Neal had preseason first-round draft buzz. Brett Eskildsen became Penn State’s first receiver to land on Bruce Feldman’s college football “Freaks List.”
And there was reason to think Becht might be flying a little under the radar.
But through 40 transfers from 17 schools - including 24 from Iowa State - only Sowell has consistently played like a true game-changing Big Ten performer. In conference play, he ranks third among Big Ten receivers in catches with 26 and yards per game with 96. He has also caught two of Penn State’s three Big Ten touchdowns through the air.
Sowell has six of Penn State’s seven receptions of 25 yards or more in Big Ten play. The only other one belongs to Eskildsen, who then fumbled after his 25-yard catch against USC in the fourth quarter.
The transfer backs have not brought the spark anyone expected. Hansen and James Peoples have not produced a carry of 10 yards or more in Big Ten play.
The group of Hansen, Peoples, Quinton Martin Jr. and Cam Wallace - described by position coach Savon Huggins as formidable - is averaging 2.96 yards per carry in conference games. Peoples, who came from Ohio State because of his explosive-play potential, has a long run of just 9 yards in four Big Ten games.
For all the attention on the newcomers, the players already in the building have often been the best ones. The strongest side of the offensive line has been the right side, with returners Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins leading the way. Andrew Rappleyea has been the top tight end overall.
Rojas has been Penn State’s highest-graded player, and the returning cornerbacks - Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson and Zion Tracy - have been the defensive bright spots. Tracy has even moved from nickelback to safety over the last two games, with Neal and Cooper each sitting for different starts.
There has been at least one transfer who has flashed impact on defense. Freshman cornerback Josiah Zayas, another addition from Iowa State, followed Campbell after signing there in December, won a Game 1 start and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. One of those was a pick-6 against Wisconsin that put Penn State ahead 10-0.
Becht’s college career has never been built on steady 65-percent completion football. He has 12 career games above 70 percent completion and eight at 50 percent or lower. At Iowa State, he helped produce seven game-winning drives over three seasons, including one against Central Florida after throwing two interceptions, one of them a pick-6, that directly led to 14 points.
That version has not fully carried over.
In Big Ten play, Becht is 24-for-48 in fourth quarters, and three of his six turnovers have come in those situations. His conference completion rate sits at 59.6 percent, he is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and he has thrown all five of his interceptions against Big Ten opponents, along with only three touchdowns. Penn State also has not gotten where it needs to go in the red zone.
The Nittany Lions have scored touchdowns on only six of their 11 red-zone trips in Big Ten play. In the three-point loss to Michigan, they settled for a first-quarter field goal. In the eight-point loss to USC, they came away with two red-zone field goals.
That leaves Becht short of the quarterback Penn State expected, and it leaves the transfer class looking more like a misread - or a group that simply hasn’t delivered. For Campbell, whose job is to push players to outperform expectations, that has become the season’s defining issue.
In Other News...
Penn State Title Chase Now Hinges On Two Huge Lineup Decisions
Penn States path back into the center of the national title conversation is getting a boost at two key weights, with Cael Sanderson saying Tyler Kasak and Josh Barr are expected to be fully recovered and back in competition. Both wrestlers were injured at the U.S. Open in April, but each has now resumed hard work, giving the Nittany Lions added clarity as lineup planning starts to sharpen.
Kasak is projected to slot in at 157 pounds, while Barr is returning with the kind of expectations that go beyond simply filling a spot. For a program that measures seasons by March more than by anything else, those two decisions carry real weight, and Penn State now has to see how quickly both can settle back in and contend for top honors. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Suddenly Has A Recruiting Problem Matt Campbell Can't Ignore
Penn States recruiting picture took another jolt when 2027 quarterback commit Will Wood backed off his pledge and picked Boston College instead. It is the kind of move that can happen early in a cycle, but it still lands with extra weight for a program trying to steady itself and keep its future classes on track.
Matt Campbell said his staff is working across multiple recruiting classes while also trying not to lose sight of the team in front of them. For Penn State, that balance matters right now: the staff has to keep pushing on the trail, keep evaluating what comes next, and still find a way to help the current roster improve enough to make those conversations easier. [Read more 🡒]
Michigans Quarterback Move Changes How Penn State Fans May View That Loss
Tommy Carr is in line to make his first career start for Michigan against Indiana after his effective relief work against Penn State, a move that should at least prompt a little rethinking in State College about the sting of that loss. Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham said the staff has settled on a starter, though he stopped short of naming Carr publicly, and also made clear he feels good about Carrs preparation and football IQ.
Bryce Underwood, who had been the starter before the change, is expected to stay on the sideline unless the Wolverines need him because of injury or performance issues. For Penn State, the bigger takeaway is less about who Michigan is starting next and more about what that quarterback decision says about how the Wolverines viewed the game Carr helped swing in relief. [Read more 🡒]