Penn State’s 2025 schedule was already under the microscope. Now the College Football Playoff may be adding a new layer to the conversation.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich reported that the CFP selection committee will introduce a fresh metric this year: strength of schedule within conferences. That means the committee will still weigh overall strength of schedule and strength of record, but it will also look more closely at how tough a team’s conference slate really is.
Dinich said the new piece of the puzzle will “help separate teams in the SAME LEAGUE with similar records based on the strength of their conference opponents.” She pointed to Penn State as an example.
That matters because the Nittany Lions’ league slate doesn’t exactly scream grind. Penn State does not play Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon this season, and those are three of the teams that returned to the playoff picture. The schedule also does not include Iowa or Illinois, and Penn State won’t face a 10-win team from last season at all.
The numbers back up the easy-schedule talk. Penn State is 3-0, and it rolled through non-conference play without facing a Power 4 opponent, outscoring those three teams by a combined 105 points.
The toughest opponent on the preseason schedule, according to ESPN’s College Football Index, is Temple at No. 85.
Penn State didn’t build this slate in a vacuum. The non-conference games were set years ago, and the Big Ten handled the conference schedule.
Still, the result is the same: the Nittany Lions’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 57th nationally in ESPN FPI, last in the Big Ten. That number sits 10 spots behind Wisconsin, which visits Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
The flip side is that Penn State’s average win-probability ranking is strong. The Nittany Lions are ninth nationally there, four spots behind Ohio State.
There are still some big games left. Penn State’s highest-ranked remaining opponent is USC, which comes to Beaver Stadium for the White Out and checks in at No. 18 in the FPI.
Penn State also has one road game against a top-20 FPI team, No. 20 Michigan.
That schedule has fueled plenty of outside chatter, including from FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt. On a winter episode of The Joel Klatt Show, he called the setup a “jackpot” for first-year coach Matt Campbell.
“The best schedule in the Big Ten, yes, the lottery-winner, they hit the jackpot folks, and that is new head coach Matt Campbell and the Penn State Nittany Lions,” Klatt said. “This thing is not difficult. It just isn't at all.”
“If you would have known this schedule before this hiring process, guys would have clamored to take the [job.]”
Klatt also described it as a “potential 10-win schedule,” saying that kind of season could be enough to push Penn State into the playoff. “It could be a good year in Happy Valley with Matt Campbell,” he said.
That’s where the CFP’s new metric could really matter. A 10-win Penn State team could find itself compared with other 10-win teams that faced a harder conference path, and that new in-league strength-of-schedule number may become a key tiebreaker for the last at-large spots.
CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah suggested the change is aimed more at SEC coaches who have complained about the move to nine conference games. But Penn State could end up feeling the impact too, even if it never asked for it.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has spent plenty of time making the case that his league belongs at the center of the playoff conversation. In July, he pointed to the conference’s run of three straight national championships and noted that the Big Ten had seven of the “nation's best 11 wins, more than double the next closest league.”
“There have been 22 games played in the first two years of the 12-team CFP,” Petitti said at Big Ten Media Days. “Fourteen of those 22 games have featured Big Ten teams, including two games with Big Ten teams facing each other.”
Penn State has already been part of that playoff mix three times, going 2-1. But if the Nittany Lions want back in this season, they may need to do more than win. They may need to explain why their path should count the same as everyone else’s under what looks a lot like a new Penn State rule.
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