Penn State heads into 2026 with a clean slate under new head coach Matt Campbell, but the biggest threat to a playoff push may not be on the schedule at all.
The Nittany Lions are staring at a soft opening to the season, and that could create a dangerous problem later. Depending on how Michigan, USC and Washington finish out, Penn State may not face a ranked opponent at all.
That kind of résumé can be hard to sell, even if the Nittany Lions stack wins and finish 9-3 or better. Beating unranked teams does not exactly move the needle with the College Football Playoff committee.
That’s where the real headache begins. Penn State’s most familiar obstacle in this kind of setup has been the people making the rankings.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich took a look across the Power Four and identified each program’s archenemy. For Penn State, it was not a rival coach or a heated opponent. It was national poll voters.
"The Nittany Lions had five undefeated seasons under former coach Joe Paterno ... but was snubbed for the national title in four of those campaigns," Dinich wrote. "The College Football Playoff hasn't fixed Penn State's woes with polls. Following Penn State's Big Ten title in 2016, the CFP selection committee excluded the Nittany Lions from the top four, earning Penn State the dubious distinction of becoming the first Power 4 conference champion excluded from the CFP."
That history hangs over everything. Five undefeated seasons and not one national title is a brutal pattern, and the 2016 snub still stands out as one of the clearest examples of Penn State getting left out despite doing enough to make its case.
So if 2026 ends with the Nittany Lions sitting on a strong record but without the kind of signature wins that jump off the page, the old problem could come roaring back. In a season built around a lighter schedule, the committee and the poll voters may end up being Penn State’s toughest opponent once again.
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Penn States 2025 season never really recovered from the kind of moments that can tilt an entire program, and the quarterback play at the center of it keeps looking worse in hindsight. Drew Allars interceptions in big games became part of the story as the Nittany Lions slid from playoff hopes into a stretch of losses that ultimately ended with James Franklins firing after the Week 7 defeat to Northwestern, a result that sent shockwaves through a team built to contend.
The collapse was not about one bad afternoon, but the memory that lingers is how often Penn State found itself undone in the biggest spots. After a 54-day search, the program turned to Matt Campbell as its new head coach, hoping to reset the direction of a team still trying to move past the decisions and missed chances that helped define the end of Franklins run. [Read more 🡒]
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The most interesting early camp developments have come in the places where Penn State still needs answers, especially on offense, where receiver depth and quarterback depth are always under the microscope. Eskildsens transition has been one of the louder storylines, while Manskes return after missing spring practice has added another layer to the quarterback picture, and both players are part of a group that appears to be pushing for bigger responsibilities as camp continues. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Kalani Sitake Pursuit Looks Different After BYUs Costly Bet
Kalani Sitakes new deal at BYU has changed the way any outside pursuit would have to be viewed, even if Penn States interest in him predated the Nittany Lions hiring Matt Campbell. BYU did not just reward its coach with an extension, it made a major financial commitment by pushing his annual salary from $4 million to $10 million while also spending more on assistants and the roster, a clear sign it intends to keep pace in a sport where money increasingly shapes the coaching market.
Still, Sitake has not sounded entirely comfortable with the gap he sees around him, pointing to the financial limits BYU faces compared with other programs in the Big 12 and across the power conferences. For Penn State, that matters because the school was part of the conversation once upon a time, and the bigger question now is how a program with its own deep resources would have framed the chase if it had pressed harder before Campbell took the job. [Read more 🡒]