Week 5 of the college football season opens with three games on the board tonight, and the best betting angles point to defense in one matchup and a strong buy-low spot in another. The headliner is a Big Ten clash between Penn State and Northwestern, but the card also includes Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech and Liberty-Delaware.
The clearest edge on the night comes from Pittsburgh’s defense. The Panthers have been excellent to open the season, checking in 16th in adjusted EPA per play, 30th in opponent yards per play, and 14th in opponent success rate.
Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has struggled badly on that side of the ball, ranking 104th, 110th, and 125th in those same categories. There’s plenty to like about the Hokies’ offense, but those defensive numbers make it hard to trust them as 3.5-point favorites.
Liberty is another team that looks worth backing. The Flames have clearly been the better side statistically, sitting 42nd in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 12th in Net Success Rate.
Delaware has been near the bottom of the FBS in both, ranking 123rd and 122nd. That gap is enough to justify taking Liberty to win and cover the 7.5-point spread.
Penn State is the night’s most interesting play because of the number, not just the teams. Northwestern is coming off a close run at the defending champions, which is likely to draw public money toward the Wildcats.
At the same time, Penn State is fresh off an ugly loss to Wisconsin, a result that will make bettors hesitant to lay points with the Nittany Lions. That sets up a classic buy-low, sell-high situation.
Still, Penn State has the defensive profile to answer the bell. The Nittany Lions rank 25th in net adjusted EPA per play, and their defense has allowed just 3.9 yards per play, the sixth-fewest in the country. If the offense avoids another collapse, that defense should be enough to carry Penn State to a win and a cover.
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