Penn State’s path to the College Football Playoff is effectively gone after the Nittany Lions’ 21-18 loss to Michigan, but there’s still a bowl picture to sort through if they can claw their way to six wins.
The defeat left Penn State sitting at 3-4, and the way it unfolded only made things worse. The Nittany Lions had a shot to win it late, but three Rocco Becht second half turnovers wound up fueling all 21 of Michigan’s points.
Now comes a bye week, followed by five games that look manageable on paper. That’s enough to keep the conversation alive around a non-playoff bowl, even if the CFP is off the table.
Different national outlets are reading the situation in different ways. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Penn State a 0 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff, though it does peg the Nittany Lions with a 30.2 percent chance to win out the rest of the way. That number has climbed from about 15 percent, and only four teams have a better chance of running the table.
The Athletic is less optimistic overall, projecting Penn State to finish 7-6 and giving the program less than a 1 percent chance at most major milestones.
The bowl projections are also split. Athlon Sports sends Penn State to Tempe for a Dec. 26 matchup with Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl. Sports Illustrated has the Nittany Lions headed to Charlotte for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
CBS Sports also slots Penn State into the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, but with a different opponent: Bill Belichick and UNC, set for the day after Christmas.
On3 sees a far bleaker finish, with bowl expert Brett McMurphy projecting Penn State to miss out on a bowl after its 3-4 start.
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Penn States Big Ten Position Just Got Much More Uncomfortable
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Ohio State now has its own concern after Julian Sayin was sidelined for several weeks, a development that changes the leagues balance in a hurry. Around the conference, teams such as Rutgers, Minnesota, UCLA and Oregon posted notable results while also dealing with the growing reality of backup quarterbacks being forced into bigger roles. For Penn State, the broader takeaway is obvious: the path through the Big Ten just got more crowded, more unpredictable and a lot less comfortable. [Read more 🡒]
Rocco Becht Faces A Penn State Question Fans Can't Ignore
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Penn State has not done him many favors either. The running game has been weak, and injuries to key receivers have left Becht operating with less margin for error than he would like. Even so, the questions around him are growing because the underlying issues are showing up in the same places week after week, and the Nittany Lions still need a way to turn a frustrating stretch into something more sustainable. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States QB Faces Mounting Pressure After Painful Michigan Loss
Rocco Bechts latest outing left Penn State with plenty to sort through after a 21-18 loss to Michigan, a game in which the quarterbacks mistakes helped tilt the second half. Becht was part of a messy afternoon that featured two interceptions and a lost fumble, the kind of turnover-heavy performance that can linger after a tight road loss and raise questions about how a team moves forward.
Matt Campbell, though, did not sound ready to shift away from his starter. He pointed to Bechts competitiveness and the room he still has to grow, while Becht acknowledged the challenge and said he believes in himself and in the work ahead. For Penn State, the storyline now is less about one bad night than whether its quarterback can steady things quickly enough to keep the season from slipping into something more complicated. [Read more 🡒]