Penn State enters Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite over Purdue at Beaver Stadium, but that number comes with plenty of baggage. The Nittany Lions are carrying the weight of a season that has gone sideways, a quarterback still trying to shake off whatever has been bothering him, and a breakout receiver who was first listed as questionable.
That makes this a tricky read in Week 9, and the predictions split in different directions.
Chase Fisher sees Penn State’s offense finally putting together something closer to a full game against a Purdue defense that gives up 32.3 points and 413.1 yards per contest. He expects quarterback Rocco Becht to look sharp and the Nittany Lions to attack a weak Boilermakers secondary on the way to a 34-24 win.
Will Horstman is more skeptical. He thinks Penn State’s slide could deepen, pointing to Purdue’s pass-heavy approach and noting that even though that style matches up with Penn State’s secondary strength, USC already beat the Nittany Lions by leaning on the pass. Horstman has Purdue pulling the upset, 24-21.
Mark Wogenrich lands somewhere in between, calling the 54.5-point total a sign that this could turn into a messy shootout. He sees Penn State, and Becht in particular, beginning to claw out of its funk in a 31-25 victory.
The quarterback storyline is where the focus keeps landing. Fisher believes Becht finally breaks through against a conference opponent, throwing for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns for the first time this season. Wogenrich goes even further, saying Matt Campbell has spent the past two weeks trying to rebuild Becht’s confidence after the quarterback committed six turnovers in four Big Ten games, and he predicts a three-touchdown outing.
Horstman points to receiver Chase Sowell as one of the few bright spots in Penn State’s offense. Sowell is coming off a career-high 151-yard game against Michigan, and with Koby Howard’s status still uncertain, Horstman expects him to keep being a steady target.
The defense also has a few names to watch. Fisher says defensive end Alex McPherson has been building momentum all season and finally gets home against Purdue after seeing his snap count rise against Michigan. Horstman highlighted Marcus Neal Jr., who moved from safety to linebacker over the bye week and could help fill a depth problem right away.
Wogenrich singled out Penn State cornerback Audavion Collins, who he said is rising on draft boards. He expects Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne to get his numbers, but not enough freedom to make the kinds of throws that swing a game, and he has Collins grabbing his first interception of the season.
On the ground, though, the Boilermakers have the edge in the eyes of this group. Fisher noted that Purdue has topped 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games, including Fame Ijeboi’s 195-yard outing against Minnesota, while Penn State has not topped 68 rushing yards in a game since Week 4 against Wisconsin. Horstman backed that up, pointing to Ijeboi’s 195 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries as the strongest rushing performance either team has shown in Big Ten play.
Wogenrich drew the sharpest comparison of all, noting that Ijeboi’s 195 yards against Minnesota outpaced Penn State’s running backs over their last three games combined. Even against Purdue’s 97th-ranked run defense, he expects the Nittany Lions to keep laboring on the ground, and he called that the season’s most surprising struggle.
Still, Fisher believes this is the kind of matchup Penn State should handle. Purdue’s offense is not built on the run, and its defense has not offered much resistance. He thinks the Nittany Lions can use this game to give their fans a reason to breathe again.
Horstman also mentioned backup quarterback Alex Manske, though only as a name that could start drawing louder calls if Penn State loses again. As long as Becht is available, Horstman said, he remains the starter because of Campbell’s loyalty to him.
Wogenrich summed up the biggest question in the game with a simple one: Is Rocco Becht back? He believes the quarterback’s “hurt” and “disappointed” tone after the Michigan game, along with the bye week, can push him in the right direction on Saturday.
In Other News...
Penn States 2027 QB Search Just Got More Interesting
Penn States quarterback work in the Class of 2027 has already taken a turn, with Will Wood flipping his commitment to Boston College and leaving the Nittany Lions back in the market. The move adds another layer to a position group the staff is still actively sorting through, and it puts even more attention on how Penn State plans to shape that class moving forward.
One of the names now in the mix is Ben Rolapp, a Boston College commit who has drawn multiple offers and followed up a strong 2025 season with a growing recruiting profile. Penn States offer to Rolapp makes the picture a little more complicated, and it underscores how the Nittany Lions are continuing to chase quarterback options even as the board keeps shifting around them. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Faces Real Pressure As Offensive Concerns Keep Growing
Penn State gets Purdue at Beaver Stadium in a spot where the backdrop matters as much as the matchup. The Nittany Lions are carrying a four-game Big Ten losing streak, while Purdue arrives with an 11-game skid against Penn State, and that contrast alone says plenty about where both programs are headed entering the weekend. Barry Odom has already been talking about getting his team ready for the noise and pressure of one of the leagues tougher road environments, which only adds to the sense that this is a game Penn State has to handle with a little more purpose than it has shown lately.
Offensively, the bigger question is whether the Nittany Lions can start looking more like themselves again. Rocco Becht has battled turnover issues, but there is still expectation around him to settle in and clean things up, and there is some added hope at receiver with Koby Howard potentially back after missing four games. For a team trying to stop a slide and restore confidence, those are the kinds of pieces that matter, even if the broader problems have been too stubborn to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State May Need Arrington Back Sooner Than Fans Expected
Penn State has spent much of the season trying to piece together its edge-rusher rotation, and the latest availability report only underscored how thin that room can get. LaVar Arrington II was sidelined for the first seven games after knee surgery, and with Max Granville already out for the year, the staff has had to keep sorting through a group that also includes young players such as Alexander McPherson and Yvan Kemajou.
Against Purdue in Week 9, Arrington was absent from the availability report, a small but notable development for a defense still managing multiple injuries and a crowded injury list overall. For Penn State, the question is no longer just when Arrington gets back, but how quickly the Nittany Lions need him once he does, given the way the depth chart has been tested at one of the most demanding spots on the field. [Read more 🡒]