As bowl season heats up, Penn State finds itself in a familiar yet somewhat frustrating position-on the outside looking in. The Nittany Lions are set to face Clemson in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, a matchup that, just a few months ago, might’ve looked like a College Football Playoff showdown in the making. Instead, it’s a cold-weather consolation prize in Yankee Stadium while 12 other programs gear up for the second edition of the expanded CFP.
And let’s be honest: it only took one year of the 12-team format for fans and analysts alike to start poking holes in the system. Yes, it’s an upgrade from the rigid four-team setup, but it’s far from flawless.
This year’s bracket features two Group of Five teams that are expected to be overmatched in their opening-round games-cue the likely blowouts in Eugene and Oxford this Saturday. Still, it’s a step forward from last year’s version, where the top four conference champions were automatically handed first-round byes, regardless of how they stacked up in the national rankings.
That quirk in the system led to some head-scratching seedings. Only two of the top eight teams in the final 2024 rankings actually won their conference titles, which meant the seeding process looked more like a game of musical chairs than a true ranking of the nation’s best.
Penn State, ironically, ended up benefiting from that chaos. Despite being ranked No. 4 in the final pre-CFP rankings-behind Oregon, Georgia, and Texas-they were seeded No. 6 because they didn’t win the Big Ten title. Texas, another non-champion, was slotted ahead of them.
So Penn State opened their playoff run with a first-round home game against No. 11 seed SMU, a team that had just lost the ACC title game to No. 12 seed Clemson. (Yes, both teams made the CFP.
No, it didn’t make much sense.) The Nittany Lions rolled through that one without much resistance.
Next up was No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise was ranked No. 9 but got a bump in seeding thanks to the now-scrapped rule favoring conference champs. Again, Penn State took care of business, cruising to a win that never felt in doubt.
That set the stage for a marquee Orange Bowl clash with Notre Dame-ranked No. 5 but seeded No. 7. It was a heavyweight battle, and this time, the Lions came up short, falling 27-24 in a heartbreaker.
Now, here’s where things get interesting: under the 2025 format, which removed automatic byes for the top four conference champions, Penn State’s path would’ve looked very different last year.
In the new system, the top five conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, but the seeding is determined strictly by the final rankings. That would’ve made Penn State the No. 4 seed in 2024, earning them a first-round bye.
Sounds great, right? Not so fast.
Notre Dame, as the No. 5 seed, likely would’ve faced No. 12 Clemson in the first round.
Assuming the Irish won that game-as they did in real life when they faced Penn State-they would’ve matched up with the Nittany Lions one round earlier. Based on how that Orange Bowl played out, it’s hard to argue that the old format didn’t actually help Penn State make a deeper run than they would’ve under this year’s rules.
Looking Ahead to the 2025 College Football Playoff
Fast forward to this season, and while Penn State is prepping for a bowl game in a baseball stadium-thanks in part to late-season wins over Michigan State, Rutgers, and a Nebraska team led by a backup quarterback-three other Big Ten teams are chasing a national title.
Ohio State and Oregon delivered on their preseason hype, while Indiana shocked just about everyone. The Hoosiers not only met expectations-they shattered them, going undefeated and claiming the Big Ten crown, which earned them the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff.
Meanwhile, Penn State made a coaching change, parting ways with James Franklin after an 0-3 start in conference play. It was a move that signaled a new direction, but also underscored how far the program fell short of its lofty goals.
The 2025 format isn’t perfect, and tweaks are already in the works for 2026. But it’s still worth noting how different things would look if last year’s rules were still in place.
Take Ohio State, for example. Under the 2024 format, the Buckeyes would’ve been the No. 5 seed instead of No.
- That would’ve set them up with a first-round matchup against No.
12 James Madison from the Sun Belt-a game that would’ve been over by halftime. Win that, and they’d face No.
4 Tulane, the two-loss American Athletic Conference champ. Another likely blowout.
In that alternate reality, Ohio State-despite losing the Big Ten title game to Indiana-would’ve had a relatively smooth ride to the semifinals without facing a Power Four opponent. Sound familiar? It’s a path not unlike the one Penn State walked last year.
So while the CFP continues to evolve, one thing remains constant: the format matters. A lot. And for teams like Penn State, the difference between a deep playoff run and an early exit-or a trip to the Bronx instead of the big stage-can come down to how the bracket is built.