The Big Ten’s title picture has gone from crowded to downright chaotic, and Ohio State’s loss at USC is the kind of result that changes the whole conversation. For most of the season, this looked like a league built around two heavyweights. Now, with Julian Sayin hurt and Luke Fahey struggling in relief, the door is wide open.
Indiana still sits alone at the top, but the Hoosiers needed overtime for the second straight week and could use the bye week as much as anyone in the country. Even so, they remain the conference’s clear No. 1 thanks to star power and a defense that held Minnesota to a 27% success rate.
The offense has its issues, and Josh Hoover is banged up, probably more than Curt Cignetti is letting on, but Indiana still found a way. Special teams mistakes nearly cost them before the 60-yard field goal that pushed the game to OT, yet the Hoosiers were still the better team.
Behind them, USC made the kind of statement that can reshape a league race. The Trojans beat Ohio State 30-18, and when they play to the ceiling of their talent, they look capable of winning the Big Ten.
Ohio State, meanwhile, suddenly looks vulnerable in a way it didn’t a week ago. The Buckeyes are not the same team without Julian Sayin, and they don’t appear to have the defense or run game to cover for a backup quarterback.
Even with 2025 five-star Tavien St. Clair on the roster, Ryan Day and his staff clearly don’t think he’s the answer right now, because it’s hard to imagine he would have looked worse than Luke Fahey did in Week 9.
The result leaves Ohio State in real danger of missing the CFP altogether.
Oregon also looked different in Week 9, though for a different reason. The Ducks no longer have Drew Mehringer calling plays, and with Jay Johnson taking over, their offensive talent showed up against Northwestern. Dylan Raiola had time to work, attacked downfield efficiently, and Dakorien Moore finally looked like the superstar he was supposed to become.
UCLA remains unbeaten at 8-0 after a 27-0 win over Nevada, and the Bruins are still the conference’s only undefeated team. But the second tier has become a moving target.
Oregon and UCLA have already lost their starting quarterbacks, and now Ohio State has joined that group of teams dealing with major change. Reality keeps shifting in this league.
Penn State finally got on the board in Big Ten play with a 31-17 win over Purdue, and the Nittany Lions at least have something to show for Saturday. They still don’t have a real path to the title game, but they could get their receivers back in Week 10 against Washington. That said, it’s hard to see a major gap between those two teams next Saturday.
The middle of the league is packed with teams that look interchangeable from week to week. Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all belong in the same bucket, with enough quality to beat one another and even knock off some of the conference’s best if the offense catches fire.
Michigan’s defense remains one of the best in the sport, and even in a 28-21 loss to Rutgers, it allowed just a 28% success rate. With Tommy Carr at quarterback, Michigan may actually have a better defense than Ohio State, and aside from Jeremiah Smith, its offense might be comparable too.
Still, the Wolverines fit better in this reworked Tier 3 with Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota than they do anywhere else.
Washington, Penn State, and Nebraska also land together as frustrating underperformers. Washington beat Nebraska 17-10, while Nebraska dropped to 5-2. Penn State’s first conference win came against Purdue, but the bigger picture still feels murky.
At the bottom, Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan State remain stuck in Tier 5. Rutgers hit some explosives against Michigan without KJ Duff, but also allowed Tommy Carr to average 9.18 yards per dropback. Maryland hung around with Illinois, though it did so while offering free tuition to a student who stayed all four quarters, which says plenty about how much confidence the Terps inspired.
Illinois and Purdue sit in the next group up, and both are odd fits in their own way. Illinois is somehow fifth in the conference at 3-2, while Purdue’s best moment remains its pounding of Minnesota.
Both have legitimate wins - Illinois over Oregon and Purdue over Minnesota - and both are well coached. Neither is especially scary, though Katin Houser getting back healthy is a boost for Illinois, and bowl eligibility is very much in play.
That feels more like a reflection of Bret Bielema’s program than the ceiling of this roster.
The Big Ten may still have a pecking order, but it’s a messy one now. Indiana is still the team to beat, USC has momentum, Oregon has life again, and Ohio State just took the kind of loss that can unravel a season fast.
In Other News...
Penn State Fans May Notice One Strange Thing About Seattle Tickets
Penn States first Big Ten win under Matt Campbell gave the program a needed lift, but the attention around the next trip is turning to something a little less on-field: the cost of getting into Seattle. Ticket prices for the upcoming game against Washington are sitting in the $53 to $75 range, a number shaped by Washingtons recent play and the fact that the matchup is on the road in Seattle.
Even with those prices landing in the same neighborhood as Washingtons final home game against Indiana, attendance is expected to be light for the Penn State game. That makes the market feel a bit unusual for a high-profile nonconference trip, with the price tag not exactly matching the level of local demand the Huskies might normally expect. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Could Be Headed For A Bowl Matchup Fans Didn't Expect
Baylors turnaround under interim coach Joe Klanderman has put the Bears back into the bowl picture, and that in turn has created a few possible postseason paths that could matter to Penn State fans. After beating UCF to move to 5-3, Baylor needs one more win to lock up bowl eligibility, and the projections around the program have started to widen, with several outlets floating a range of opponents from Missouri and Florida to FAU, Army and Penn State.
For the Nittany Lions, the interesting part is not just that Baylor has re-entered the conversation, but that the matchup options are still unsettled enough to leave room for a surprise. Baylors recent form and the players driving it have made the Bears a more credible bowl draw than they looked earlier in the year, and the challenge they could present would depend heavily on which version of the team shows up in December. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Snap Counts Hint At A Sudden Role Shift
Penn States latest snap counts against Purdue offered a clearer look at how the staff is sorting through its rotation as injuries and game flow continue to shape who is on the field. The numbers showed changes in playing time on both sides of the ball, with several offensive and defensive pieces taking on different workloads than they had earlier in the season, while Cam Wallaces rushing production and Yvan Kemajous defensive presence stood out in the box score.
Amid those shifts, Matt Campbell singled out freshman Amarion Jackson for praise, a noteworthy sign that the staff is comfortable expanding his role as the season moves along. For a team still adjusting week to week, the snap distribution suggests the depth chart is anything but settled, and the next round of game reps should reveal whether these changes are temporary fixes or the start of something more permanent. [Read more 🡒]