ESPN’s FPI has Penn State in a pretty clean spot right now: favored in every game left on the schedule.
That’s a slight shift from where things stood before the season. Penn State was already projected to be favored in all but two games, with the road trips to Michigan and Washington marked as the toughest hurdles. Now, after Michigan beat Western Michigan in a game many felt it should have lost and Washington looked shaky despite a 24-10 win over rival Washington State, the model has flipped both of those matchups in Penn State’s favor.
Against Michigan, Penn State now carries a 56.4% chance to win. At Washington, that number is 60.4%.
The rest of the schedule comes with a range of expectations, from near-lock territory to games that still carry a little bite.
Temple is next, and FPI gives Penn State a 94.2% chance to take care of business there.
Buffalo is the safest bet on the board so far, with a 98.1% win probability.
Wisconsin is the first game that looks like it could require some real attention, even with Penn State at home. One PSU beat writer has the Badgers pulling the upset, but FPI still gives Penn State an 87.7% shot to win.
Northwestern is the first Big Ten road game, and there’s some intrigue there because it will also be the first game in Northwestern’s new stadium. FPI still leans Penn State, though not by as much as some of the earlier games, putting the Nittany Lions at 82.1%.
The USC matchup could end up carrying top-10 stakes, which is part of why Penn State chose it as its annual White Out game. If both teams hold up their end of the bargain, Penn State would be a slight home favorite, and FPI agrees with that idea, giving PSU a 61.8% chance.
Purdue projects as one of the Big Ten’s bottom feeders, and FPI reflects that with a 93.1% Penn State win probability.
Minnesota has been a more reliable bowl team than not under P.J. Fleck, but the model still gives Penn State an 89.7% chance to win that one.
Rutgers is another matchup where Penn State is heavily favored, with FPI putting the Nittany Lions at 96.2%.
And finally, Maryland. Penn State hasn’t lost in College Park since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, and FPI doesn’t expect that to change now. The model gives Penn State an 82.1% chance to win that game.
In Other News...
Penn State Mourns A Former Star As New Details Emerge
Matt Suhey, the former Penn State star who went on to become a key part of the Chicago Bears championship-era offense, was found dead at his home in Deerfield, Illinois. The Lake County Coroners Office said there were no suspicious circumstances, and later indicated his death was due to natural causes tied to his significant medical history.
For Penn State, Suheys legacy reaches well beyond his pro career, rooted in his time as a reliable and rugged presence in the backfield before he became known in Chicago as Walter Paytons lead blocker. He also found the end zone in the Bears Super Bowl XX victory, a fitting footnote for a player whose value was often measured in the hard work that helped everyone around him shine. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Offense May Have Found A Tone Setter At Tight End
Penn States offense had plenty of easy highlights in its 45-0 win over Marshall, but one of the quieter reasons for the fast start came at tight end. Andrew Rappleyea showed up in the kind of ways coaches tend to love, helping set the tone on the first touchdown and making his presence felt with the physical work that can open up bigger plays for everyone else.
Matt Campbell praised Rappleyeas impact on multiple scoring snaps, and offensive lineman Cooper Cousins pointed to the kind of energy and work ethic that shows up both on the field and away from it. For a Penn State offense still sorting out its identity, that is the sort of detail that can matter as much as the final score, especially if Rappleyea keeps turning into the kind of steady force defenses have to account for. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Pass Rusher Faces A Tough Fight For Early Snaps
Penn States edge rotation already had plenty of attention heading into the season, and LaVar Arrington IIs preseason setback only sharpened it. The young pass rusher sustained a knee injury during camp, underwent clean-up surgery and has been working through a recovery timeline that head coach Matt Campbell put at four to six weeks. Arrington was not available for the Week 1 opener and was seen on crutches on the sideline, a reminder of how quickly early snaps can slip away in a crowded front.
The timing leaves Penn State waiting to see when Arrington can get back into the mix, with a return that could come around Week 6 or 7 if the rehab stays on track. Even then, he will be trying to make up missed time in a spot where practice reps matter, especially for a player hoping to carve out a role on the edge. For now, the question is less about what Arrington can do and more about how soon the Nittany Lions can count on him again. [Read more 🡒]