Florida State’s search to replace Mike Norvell is arriving at a moment when college football’s coaching market looks more bloated than ever, and Penn State’s recent path with Matt Campbell is a cautionary tale the Seminoles ought to study closely.
Campbell might still turn out to be the right fit in Happy Valley. His slow opening in Year 1 does not automatically define what comes next, and Penn State certainly could have landed in a worse place after parting with James Franklin.
Even so, the 54-day chase that ended with Campbell was messy, expensive and avoidable in a lot of ways. That’s the part Florida State should pay attention to now that Norvell is gone after Sunday’s firing.
The bigger issue is the market itself. Kirby Smart sits atop college football’s salary ladder at $13.3 million a year, with Curt Cignetti and Lane Kiffin right behind at $13 million.
Fifteen coaches are now making $10 million or more annually, and in most cases those deals are fully guaranteed with huge buyouts attached. The numbers keep climbing even as the sport keeps shifting its financial priorities.
And that’s the heart of the argument: the money is increasingly better spent on the roster.
The most expensive teams in college football this season are reportedly carrying rosters worth around $50 million. That puts Kiffin at roughly 26% of what his entire LSU roster is making this year.
Sportico reported that Andy Reid is the NFL’s highest-paid coach at $20 million annually, which is $7 million more than Smart, but still less than 7% of the NFL’s $300+ million salary cap. Even first-time NFL head coach Klint Kubiak is making $12 million from the Raiders this year, about 4%.
The point is not that coaching no longer matters. It does.
But the balance of power has changed. In earlier eras, paying a coach a massive salary made sense because that was the easiest way to secure talent.
Now the talent itself is the investment that moves the needle most. Smart’s Georgia roster is estimated at about $31 million and remains one of the best in the country, but the broader lesson is clear: elite coaches can help, yet the roster is where the real separation happens.
That’s why programs should be careful about entering bidding wars for sitting Power 4 coaches. Penn State’s process, as described here, helped inflate the market for everyone else.
And once a school does land a coach, locking itself into a giant guaranteed deal can become a trap. Florida State already knows what that looks like.
The school could not move on quickly from Norvell after his 2-10 season in 2024 because of the contract structure around him.
There’s also the buyout problem. Penn State was able to settle Franklin’s roughly $50 million buyout for $9 million because his deal included an offset clause.
Florida State does not appear to have that kind of protection with Norvell, who is set to receive $51 million from a contract that ran through 2031. That money is now unavailable for roster building, including the effort to close the reported $20 million gap between Florida State’s roster and Miami’s.
Miami’s success in the ACC is being driven by talent, not some magical coaching formula. The source points to Mario Cristobal’s program as the example of a roster-heavy advantage, not a coaching masterpiece.
Penn State’s final move still came with a steep price. After missing on BYU’s Kalani Sitake, Kraft paid Campbell’s $2 million buyout to Iowa State and gave him a fully guaranteed, eight-year, $70.5 million contract.
If it goes sideways, Penn State will not have the luxury of simply starting over. In the portal era, that kind of reset is easier than it used to be, but the financial damage can linger for multiple seasons.
That’s the warning Florida State should hear loudest. There will be pressure to chase names like Eli Drinkwitz and Kenny Dillingham. But the smarter play in this era may be to hire a younger coach or first-time head coach, keep the contract lighter and incentive-based, and use the savings to improve the roster.
Penn State did not do that. Florida State may not either, especially without an athletic director in place.
But sooner or later, somebody will. And when they do, they’ll be in a much better position than the schools still paying for their coaching mistakes.
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