Penn State is back above .500 and riding a two-game Big Ten winning streak into Week 11, but the early betting market is treating the Nittany Lions like they’ve turned into something much bigger than a team just trying to steady itself after that Week 6 loss to USC.
As of early in the week, Penn State is laying 9.5 points at home against Minnesota, with the total set at 43.5. That kind of number makes sense on paper if you’re looking at the Nittany Lions’ home field and the fact that they’ve won two straight in conference play. It also feels aggressive when you step back and look at how close Penn State came to a full-on collapse in its 28-25 win over Washington.
The Nittany Lions are 3-3 since that loss to USC dropped them to 3-3, and they’re still only 2-4 in Big Ten play. Yes, the path to an 8-4 finish is there with Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland left on the schedule. But this still looks more like a good-not-great Penn State team than one that should be nearly 10 points better than Minnesota.
That’s where the Golden Gophers enter the picture. PJ Fleck’s team is 5-4 and has put together a respectable résumé, even if it’s not the kind that screams Big Ten contender.
Minnesota owns wins over Washington, Michigan, and Iowa, and two of its three conference losses came against the league’s top two teams, Indiana and UCLA. The other Big Ten setback was a 34-20 loss to UCLA in Week 10.
The blemish that stands out most is the loss to Purdue, but that came between the Michigan and Iowa games. Minnesota also opened the year with a loss to Mississippi State, though that game came against a healthy Kamario Taylor. The Gophers aren’t great, but the question is whether they’re really seven points worse than Penn State on a neutral field.
The power ratings say Penn State has the edge, and by a healthy margin. SP+ has the Gophers at No. 68 overall and No. 102 on offense, while FPI slots them at No. 62 overall.
Penn State checks in at No. 38 in SP+ and No. 31 in FPI. In SP+, the gap is even clearer: Penn State carries a 9.3 rating, and Minnesota sits at 1.3.
Even with that math, the line still feels steep given how Penn State has played at times this season. The Nittany Lions were shaky in the second half against Washington before finally putting the game away with a seven-minute clinching drive. Still, Vegas has already shown some trust in them once before, listing Penn State as a double-digit favorite over Purdue for most of the week before the Nittany Lions handled the Boilermakers 31-17.
Maybe this is another spot where the number ends up looking right. For now, though, Penn State is getting a lot of respect from the market.
In Other News...
Penn State Fans Finally Got An Encouraging Jack Ham Update
Jack Hams absence from the Penn State-Washington buildup was felt well beyond the broadcast booth, because the Penn State legend has long been one of the most recognizable voices attached to the program. Ahead of the game in Seattle, Ham experienced a medical emergency and was treated at the University of Washington Medical Center, prompting immediate concern from around the Penn State community.
Penn State athletics later confirmed that Ham is in stable condition, a reassuring development after a tense stretch for fans and those close to the program. Coach Matt Campbell and the broadcasters also offered updates and support for Ham and his family, underscoring how quickly the situation drew attention from both the football side and the radio side of Penn State life. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Big Ten Position Suddenly Feels More Complicated
Week 10 did not give the Big Ten much help in sorting itself out. With Ohio State and Oregon both working through backup quarterbacks, and several league powers already dealing with injuries at the games most important position, the conferences pecking order has become harder to read than it looked a month ago. Even the teams that entered the year with the brightest expectations, including Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan, have had to navigate the ripple effects of quarterback uncertainty.
For Penn State, that makes the margin for error feel even thinner as the season heads into its late stretch. The Nittany Lions are still part of the conversation near the top of the league, but the recent shakeups around them have changed the backdrop of that race and made every result carry a little more weight. Add in the coaching changes and the shifting outlooks across the conference, and the Big Ten suddenly looks less like a clean hierarchy and more like a week-to-week argument. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Suddenly Has A Bigger Question Than Bowl Eligibility
Penn State is still sitting one win away from bowl eligibility, and the bowl chatter has already started to swirl around a team that has spent much of the fall in the middle of the pack. At 5-4, the Nittany Lions are being slotted by different outlets into a range of possible destinations, from the Dukes Mayo Bowl and Music City Bowl to the Cactus Bowl, Fenway Bowl and First Responder Bowl, which is a reminder that there is still plenty left to sort out before anyone starts packing bags.
ESPNs Football Power Index gives Penn State a 62.6 percent chance to win out the rest of the regular season and a 99.7 percent chance to get to six wins, so the postseason path looks clear enough on paper. The bigger question is what kind of finish the Nittany Lions can put together once they get there, because for a program with this profile, simply becoming bowl-eligible is only part of the conversation. [Read more 🡒]