Penn State Hockey Is Quietly Building a Frozen Four Contender - And the Numbers Prove It
Penn State hockey is riding a six-game Big Ten win streak - the longest in program history - but the real reason to believe in this team’s potential for another Frozen Four run goes deeper than the win column. This isn’t just a hot streak. It’s a well-oiled machine operating with the kind of consistency and structure that wins in March and April.
After sweeping Minnesota, Notre Dame, and then-No. 5 Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions are surging into February ranked No. 4 in the NPI.
That’s not just a number - it’s a reflection of the kind of underlying performance metrics that typically define national semifinalists. And with a brutal stretch ahead - facing No.
2 Michigan State and No. 1 Michigan in back-to-back series - Penn State’s mettle is about to be tested.
But here’s the thing: the numbers say they’re ready.
1. Gavin McKenna Is More Than a Scorer - He Drives the Offense
Every elite tournament team has that one player who doesn’t just finish plays - he creates them. For Penn State, that’s Gavin McKenna.
When McKenna is on the ice at even strength, Penn State’s expected goals-for rate takes a noticeable leap. He’s not just racking up points - he’s tilting the ice.
His ability to enter the zone with control and generate inner-slot chances has made his line one of the most dangerous in the country. His shot assist rate is among the team’s best, and his lines consistently post positive expected goal differentials, even against top-tier opponents.
Since returning from the World Junior Championships, McKenna has put up 11 points and is now tied with Matt DiMarsico for the team lead with 29. His CHIP (College Hockey Individual Point Value) sits at 56.9 - right in the territory of Hobey Baker-level impact.
2. Possession Numbers Match Frozen Four Standards
Want to know if a team is built for a deep run? Look at their possession metrics.
Historically, Frozen Four teams live in the 54-58% range in Corsi For percentage (CF%). Penn State is knocking on that door with an overall CF% of 52.8%, and in key moments - like special teams and tight-game situations - they’re exceeding 54%.
The Wisconsin series was a perfect example. The Badgers came in with elite possession numbers (56.9 CF%, 57.4 FF%), but Penn State flipped the script. Over the final five periods, the Nittany Lions outscored Wisconsin 10-1 and shut down their cycle game, forcing low-danger point shots instead of quality looks.
This wasn’t a one-off. The Fenwick numbers - which strip out blocked shots to get a cleaner picture of shot quality - back it up. Penn State is controlling the unblocked shot share at a level consistent with national contenders.
3. Shot Quality, Not Just Shot Volume
It’s not just about how many shots you take - it’s where you take them from. Penn State’s offense is built on high-danger chances, not just throwing pucks at the net.
They generate a high percentage of attempts from the inner and low slot - the areas where goals actually happen. And on the flip side, they’re shutting down those same areas defensively. That combination inflates expected goals for and suppresses expected goals against - the kind of profile that wins games in neutral-site, single-elimination environments.
In other words: Penn State consistently wins the most valuable ice on the rink.
4. Special Teams Are a Tournament X-Factor
In the postseason, special teams can swing a game in a heartbeat. Penn State has both ends of that equation covered.
They’re currently 12th in the nation on the power play (23.8%) and an elite fourth on the penalty kill (88%). That dual-threat special teams profile is rare - and dangerous.
The power play thrives on east-west puck movement, creating high-quality looks. Meanwhile, the penalty kill shuts down cross-seam passes and forces opponents into low-angle shots. That’s not just good strategy - it’s the kind of tactical execution that wins close games.
When five-on-five margins are razor-thin, special teams can be the separator. Penn State has the edge.
5. Goaltending That Doesn’t Flinch
Tournament hockey is unforgiving. One soft goal can end a season. That’s why goaltending stability matters - and Penn State has it in spades.
With a combined .928 save percentage, anchored by national leader Josh Fleming (.944), the Nittany Lions are getting elite production in net. But it’s not just about the saves - it’s about the environment around the crease.
Penn State limits high-danger chances, allowing their goalies to play within themselves. Fleming, for example, has a .919 save percentage on high-danger shots this season - a number that sits comfortably in elite territory.
And thanks to a steady rotation between Fleming and Kevin Reidler, both netminders have stayed fresh and sharp all year. Take Fleming’s performance against Wisconsin on Jan.
23: Penn State was shorthanded for nearly the entire first period and outshot 17-3, but he stood tall. That’s the kind of backbone that keeps a team in games when the margins get tight.
The Bottom Line: This Team Isn’t Just Hot - It’s Built to Last
Yes, the next two series against Michigan State and Michigan will have major implications for seeding and NPI positioning. But the foundation is already in place.
Penn State controls possession.
They generate high-quality chances.
They suppress danger in their own zone.
They dominate special teams.
And they’ve got goaltending that doesn’t blink.
They’ve come a long way since that November series against Michigan State, where they were outscored 7-1. Since then, the Nittany Lions have cleaned up their breakouts, tightened puck support, and become far more consistent in generating high-danger looks.
This isn’t a team hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. This is a team that’s structurally sound, analytically elite, and trending in the direction of a legitimate Frozen Four threat.
The numbers don’t lie - Penn State hockey is for real.