Chris Masse’s PSU-Michigan breakdown points to a game where neither offense inspires much confidence, but Michigan’s defense could be the difference.
Penn State’s passing game at least showed some life after two brutal outings, with Rocco Becht looking better. Still, the bigger problem remains the same: the running game has been flat, and the offensive line has not held up. Against what the breakdown describes as a bad defense, 23 points may already be close to Penn State’s ceiling.
Michigan’s offense is even harder to trust. The Wolverines rank behind PSU in yards and points per game, and only Michigan State has been worse in the Big Ten.
Bryce Underwood has not lived up to expectations over the past two seasons, and the run game has been ineffective enough to draw a Bo Schembechler lament in spirit. On that side of the ball, the edge goes to nobody.
The defensive picture is much sharper. Penn State has been unable to stop either the run or the pass in recent weeks, with the line looking shaky and Tony Rojas accounting for half of the team’s eight sacks in six games. The Lions have also given up 946 yards over their last two games, a number that makes life difficult against any opponent.
Michigan, by contrast, has a unit it can trust. The Wolverines are allowing a Big Ten-best 241.4 yards per game, and no opponent has topped 20 points against them.
Oklahoma managed only 10, though Iowa did rip off a 94-yard drive for a game-winning score three weeks ago. Michigan’s best work has come against the pass, which could matter against a Penn State team with an anemic run game.
Special teams tilt Michigan’s way as well. Penn State got a better outing from Ryan Barker last week, when he hit three field goals including a 48-yarder, and Nathan Tiyce handled punting well. Zay Robinson has not been as explosive in the return game, though Penn State is no longer facing the same level of competition.
Michigan’s Trey Butkowski has been a steady weapon, making 24 of 27 field goals over the past two years and not missing an extra point. He has been especially sharp from 40 yards, going 3-for-3 this fall. Cam Brown averages nearly five punts per game and has placed 11 of 24 inside the 20, while Andrew Marsh gives the Wolverines a threat on punt returns.
The coaching and intangibles category also leans Michigan’s direction. The piece argues that Penn State fans should not be reaching for the pitchforks just yet, since a coach cannot be fired every time things go wrong in year one. Even so, Campbell’s playcalling and clock management have already swung at least two games, especially in the red zone.
Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham is also dealing with a rough first season, and the source notes that his team should be 2-3. His long run at Utah, including the 2008 team that finished 13-0, still stands as a reminder of what he has accomplished.
The prediction record sits at 4-2, and the final call is a low-scoring Michigan win. The game is projected to have echoes of the 2004 Iowa-Penn State 6-4 grinder, with Michigan’s offense perhaps helping Penn State’s defense, but not enough to change the outcome. The pick: Michigan 24, Penn State 10.
In Other News...
Penn State Could Be Getting A Familiar Name Back For A Key Need
Penn State may be getting a familiar name back at just the right time, with LaVar Arrington II expected to return to the football team after the bye week. The son of College Football Hall of Famer LaVar Arrington spent last season contributing on special teams, and his return adds another layer to a defense looking for help in the right spots.
Coach Matt Campbell said the staff still has to decide whether Arrington II will line up at linebacker or defensive end, a choice that will shape how quickly he can make an impact. After missing time this season because of injury, his comeback gives Penn State another option to consider as it tries to maximize his value on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Faces A New Injury Concern Before Michigan Showdown
Penn State got a little clarity, and a little more uncertainty, when the Big Ten-mandated availability reports came out ahead of Saturdays trip to Ann Arbor. Two starters were upgraded and removed from the report, which is the kind of update every staff wants to see this time of year, but a starting wide receiver was added as questionable, leaving the Nittany Lions with one more situation to monitor before they face Michigan.
Michigans report stayed unchanged, with players still spread across probable, questionable, doubtful and out designations. Penn State will have two more availability reports before kickoff, so the picture could shift again before the Nittany Lions take the field in one of the biggest games on their schedule. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Offense May Be Forced Into A Shakeup At Worst Time
Penn States offense is still searching for a cleaner rhythm after a stretch in which the scoring has dried up at the wrong time. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser pointed to a few of the issues that have piled up, from the teams production in three Big Ten losses to the absence of wide receiver Koby Howard because of injury, all while the unit has continued to fight through red zone inconsistency.
Mouser also left open the possibility of changes up front, and freshman receiver Amarion Jackson could see more opportunities as the staff looks for a spark. The Nittany Lions have turned 14 of 26 trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, a mark that reflects both the promise and the frustration of an offense trying to find answers before the schedule gets any tighter. [Read more 🡒]