The first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Tuesday night, and the opening top 25 should tell us plenty about how the committee sees the sport’s biggest names after a wild Week 10. Ohio State is the team most likely to feel the heat after its loss to USC, and the Buckeyes could be staring at a noticeable slide when the rankings drop.
That matters because the committee has already shown it can paint itself into a corner early. Last year, it put Miami behind Notre Dame and ended up forcing a messy correction later when both teams were idle on conference championship weekend. That’s the kind of mistake the committee can’t afford to repeat.
For Penn State fans, there’s at least a little extra intrigue in watching Ohio State take a hit. The Nittany Lions have been struggling through Matt Campbell’s first season at the helm and still haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2016, but seeing the Buckeyes tumble after their loss to USC would still be a satisfying development.
The caveat, of course, is that the loss came with Julian Sayin injured, so the situation is more complicated than simple schadenfreude. Still, Ohio State looked dramatically different without him, and that could matter when the committee starts sorting out the order.
The AP Poll already sent a message on Sunday, dropping Ohio State to No. 11 after its second loss. The Buckeyes fell nine spots from No. 2, and the committee could decide to push them even lower depending on how much weight it gives the way the team looked without Sayin.
At the top, Miami (FL), Georgia and Utah are projected to occupy the first three spots in that order, followed by UCLA, BYU and Notre Dame. Indiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Ole Miss round out the next group, with Ohio State landing at No. 12 in this projection. Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Tennessee, LSU, USC, Missouri, Houston, Boise State, South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Northwestern and Arizona follow.
There are a few places where the committee should have some easy decisions to make. Notre Dame should not be placed ahead of BYU if both teams are sitting on one loss, especially with BYU owning the head-to-head result. That issue could even get sorted on Saturday, when Utah hosts BYU and Notre Dame hosts Miami.
Kentucky versus Alabama is another straightforward comparison. The AP Poll has Kentucky one spot ahead of Alabama, but Alabama beat Kentucky head-to-head, so that should be an obvious flip.
Near the back end of the rankings, Northwestern looks like a team that belongs in the Top 25. Its two losses came on the road at Indiana and Oregon, which is a strong enough resume to get in.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is projected to fall out. The committee didn’t give the Group of Six much love last year, even though two teams eventually made the field because five-loss Duke won the ACC.
As for Ohio State, the key question is whether the committee keeps the Buckeyes ahead of one-loss teams such as Texas Tech and Wake Forest to cushion the drop. One loss came on the road at Texas, which should help. But that game came with Sayin, and with Luke Fahey at quarterback, this is clearly a different Ohio State team.
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The bigger issue is the kind of targets Penn State is chasing. The staff has been pursuing several recruits who are already committed elsewhere, often from programs with lower roster spending and lower rankings, which has made this feel like a familiar kind of recruiting battle. Wide receiver Arnold Mugerwa is among the notable names on that list, and his recruitment fits the larger theme for Penn State, which is still trying to add more firepower to a receiver group that remains a priority. [Read more 🡒]
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The crowd in attendance also included potential flip targets and other prospects taking in the atmosphere and the way Penn State performed on the field. For a program trying to keep momentum rolling, those kinds of game-day visits matter, especially when the team can point to a convincing league win and the kind of environment recruits remember. The bigger question now is how much that visit weekend can move the needle with the players who were watching closest. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State's New-Look Roster Sent A Strong Early Message
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Roko Prkacin provided the loudest early statement, coming off the bench to score 24 points and set the tone for a group that also got important production from Brant Byers and Ivan Juric. For a team trying to establish its identity with a fresh look, the performance offered the kind of first impression that can matter well beyond one November game. [Read more 🡒]