The 24-team College Football Playoff is coming in 2027, and for Penn State, it doesn’t change the standard one bit.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich reported Monday that ESPN has reached a five-year, $1.7 billion deal with the CFP, setting the stage for the expanded format. The move lines up with announcements from every Power 4 conference that they are dropping conference championship games. The Big Ten, which pushed hardest for a 24-team field over a 16-team model, got what it wanted.
But at Penn State, simply getting into the bracket was never going to be enough.
That’s the key point here: a larger playoff may help plenty of programs breathe easier, but Penn State is not one of the schools whose expectations get lowered by extra access. James Franklin found that out the hard way.
He was fired one year after finally getting Penn State into the then-expanded 12-team CFP. Even after winning his first two games, helped by favorable matchups created by a flawed seeding setup, and reaching the semifinal, it still wasn’t enough.
Penn State wants more than participation. It expects to compete for a national championship, and to win one. Franklin didn’t do that, and that’s why Matt Campbell has the job.
That expectation probably should soften until Penn State starts spending like a true heavyweight instead of carrying the seventh-most expensive roster in the Big Ten. But for now, it remains the mindset of most of the fanbase and important people in the administration.
So if Campbell sneaks into the 24-team field as the No. 23 seed in 2027, that won’t be treated like a breakthrough. It will be viewed as the floor, not the finish line.
The bigger picture behind the playoff expansion is about keeping more programs invested. That part matters.
But Penn State already proved it could make a 12-team field, and it would have qualified for a 24-team bracket seven times during Franklin’s 12-year run. For this program, just getting in is not a badge of honor.
It’s the minimum requirement.
And if Campbell makes the next three 24-team Playoffs without winning a game or hosting a first-round matchup at Beaver Stadium, the pressure will build fast. That doesn’t necessarily mean the administration will rush to move on from his 8-year, $75 million contract, but it would absolutely heat up the conversation around him.
The 24-team setup is not really designed for Penn State anyway. The Nittany Lions were already good enough to reach the 12-team version, and the school was going to keep investing in football regardless. The real purpose is to keep mid-tier programs believing they still have a path.
That matters in a landscape where spending is getting more extreme. Of the 60 Power 4 teams with a high-end roster budget estimate of $20 million and the 46 teams reportedly spending at least that much, the question is how many would keep pouring money into football if the playoff stayed at 12 teams.
In the NFL, about 44% of the 32 teams make the postseason. In the NBA, it’s over 50%.
But with 69 Power 4 teams if Notre Dame is included, 12 spots is just 17%, while 24 is still only 34%.
If the CFP had stayed at 12, the gap between the haves and have-nots could have pushed some schools to pull back. Ohio State, Texas, LSU and others are already spending far beyond $50 million on rosters, and programs sitting in the middle might eventually decide their $20 million isn’t worth it. Boston College is already shifting in that direction, spending just $8-13 million on football and putting more into Luke Murray and the basketball program.
That kind of pullback would only deepen the divide and make the weekly product worse, with more uneven spending leading to more uneven results.
That’s why the expansion matters for schools like Pitt, Wake Forest, Houston, Minnesota, Northwestern and plenty of others. Wake Forest, which has a really good team and could be left out this year, is exactly the sort of program the new format is meant to keep engaged.
It is not meant to give Penn State, Nebraska, or Auburn a softer path to job security. Those programs will keep investing, and they will keep expecting to chase national titles. In that world, being one of 24 won’t be enough for long.
In Other News...
Penn State Fans Finally Got An Encouraging Jack Ham Update
Jack Hams absence from the Penn State-Washington buildup was felt well beyond the broadcast booth, because the Penn State legend has long been one of the most recognizable voices attached to the program. Ahead of the game in Seattle, Ham experienced a medical emergency and was treated at the University of Washington Medical Center, prompting immediate concern from around the Penn State community.
Penn State athletics later confirmed that Ham is in stable condition, a reassuring development after a tense stretch for fans and those close to the program. Coach Matt Campbell and the broadcasters also offered updates and support for Ham and his family, underscoring how quickly the situation drew attention from both the football side and the radio side of Penn State life. [Read more 🡒]
Penn States Big Ten Position Suddenly Feels More Complicated
Week 10 did not give the Big Ten much help in sorting itself out. With Ohio State and Oregon both working through backup quarterbacks, and several league powers already dealing with injuries at the games most important position, the conferences pecking order has become harder to read than it looked a month ago. Even the teams that entered the year with the brightest expectations, including Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan, have had to navigate the ripple effects of quarterback uncertainty.
For Penn State, that makes the margin for error feel even thinner as the season heads into its late stretch. The Nittany Lions are still part of the conversation near the top of the league, but the recent shakeups around them have changed the backdrop of that race and made every result carry a little more weight. Add in the coaching changes and the shifting outlooks across the conference, and the Big Ten suddenly looks less like a clean hierarchy and more like a week-to-week argument. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Suddenly Has A Bigger Question Than Bowl Eligibility
Penn State is still sitting one win away from bowl eligibility, and the bowl chatter has already started to swirl around a team that has spent much of the fall in the middle of the pack. At 5-4, the Nittany Lions are being slotted by different outlets into a range of possible destinations, from the Dukes Mayo Bowl and Music City Bowl to the Cactus Bowl, Fenway Bowl and First Responder Bowl, which is a reminder that there is still plenty left to sort out before anyone starts packing bags.
ESPNs Football Power Index gives Penn State a 62.6 percent chance to win out the rest of the regular season and a 99.7 percent chance to get to six wins, so the postseason path looks clear enough on paper. The bigger question is what kind of finish the Nittany Lions can put together once they get there, because for a program with this profile, simply becoming bowl-eligible is only part of the conversation. [Read more 🡒]