Expectations are already circling Matt Campbell’s first season at Penn State, and that’s exactly why the conversation needs a steady hand.
Campbell steps into a situation with a familiar staff, a familiar roster and senior quarterback Rocco Becht back in place. Add in a 2026 schedule that looks much friendlier than the one Penn State faced in 2025, and it would be easy to let the hype run ahead of the reality.
That’s the trap athletic director Pat Kraft was careful to avoid when he hired Campbell in December. Kraft wasn’t asking for an instant return to national title contention, and the eight-year contract Campbell signed gives him time to build this thing the right way.
So what should Year 1 actually look like?
In the best-case version, Campbell gets Penn State into the College Football Playoff. That’s the ceiling, not the standard.
The path is there, at least on paper. Michigan, USC and Washington are the biggest tests on the schedule, and Penn State is viewed as being in that same Big Ten tier with those teams.
Not having to deal with Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon is a major break, and those games against the Wolverines, Trojans and Huskies should tell everyone plenty about where this team really stands.
Still, a playoff appearance shouldn’t be the bar for success in Campbell’s first year. It’s the upside.
The more realistic line is simpler: Penn State has to finish at least 9-3 in the regular season.
That starts with taking care of the games the Nittany Lions should win. Marshall, Temple and Buffalo are all expected wins, and Wisconsin and Northwestern should fall into that category as well. That’s five victories before the schedule really starts to tighten.
From there, Campbell needs his team to beat at least one of the three biggest Big Ten opponents on the slate. Michigan is the toughest of that group, but USC comes to Beaver Stadium the week before, which makes that stretch especially important. How Penn State handles the Trojans should say a lot about how it matches up with the Wolverines.
The timing of the bye week helps too. It gives Campbell and his team a chance to reset before the final run of Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland, a stretch that should produce four more wins at minimum.
There’s room for one stumble against a weaker Big Ten opponent, as long as the game is competitive and well played. There’s also some margin for two losses against Michigan, USC and Washington.
What Penn State can’t do is get overwhelmed in those games. Blowouts would be a different story entirely.
That’s the baseline for Campbell in Year 1. Not a dream season, not a national title chase, just a clear and reachable standard for what this team should be able to do.
The Nittany Lions should also win their non-playoff bowl game, though that will depend on the opponent. More than anything, this season will be about how Campbell coaches against evenly matched teams, how efficiently Penn State handles the softer parts of the schedule and how quickly it responds when things go wrong.
In Other News...
James Franklin Just Reopened A Penn State Debate Fans Never Forgot
James Franklins departure from Penn State is still the kind of topic that can pull old frustrations back to the surface, especially now that he is at Virginia Tech and looking back on the end of his run in Happy Valley. The timing is notable too, with Penn State continuing its Beaver Stadium renovation work in Phase II of a $700 million project and another major donation helping keep the overhaul moving forward.
At the same time, the football conversation around the program has not exactly settled down. ESPNs preseason College Football Power Index pegs Penn State 17th, projects nine wins and gives the Nittany Lions a 22 percent shot at the College Football Playoff, a reminder that expectations remain high even as the roster turns over and the program prepares to introduce 55 new players in 2026. [Read more 🡒]