Penn State enters Saturday night’s White Out with plenty to sort out, and still with the kind of favorite status that feels a little surprising after back-to-back Big Ten losses. Even so, the Nittany Lions are listed as 1.5-point favorites over USC at DraftKings, while the Trojans are making their way to the Eastern Time Zone for the second time this season.
That sets up an interesting test at Beaver Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for just after 8 p.m. ET on NBC’s Big Ten Saturday Night.
Penn State has its own problems, and USC hasn’t exactly looked like a clean playoff answer either, especially after allowing 35 points at Rutgers. The result is a matchup that feels wide open enough to invite some split opinions.
Will Horstman sees the pressure getting heavier on Penn State. After losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, he doesn’t trust the Nittany Lions to steady themselves in front of the White Out crowd, and he doesn’t think Campbell gets a win against his first ranked opponent this season. His pick: USC 27, Penn State 17.
Mark Wogenrich sees a different path, even if the recent form hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. He notes that recency bias makes it easy to assume Penn State won’t get past 14 points, especially against a USC defense that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in total defense at 348.8 yards per game.
Still, he believes Penn State may have already played its six worst quarters of the season, and he backs the Nittany Lions to bounce back. His pick: Penn State 26, USC 23.
The quarterback matchup is one of the biggest reasons this game could tilt either way. Horstman points to USC’s Maiava as a fresh challenge for Penn State’s defense, calling him the best passer the unit has seen this season. He says the conversation all week has centered on what Penn State’s run defense can do to avoid another rough outing, but the deciding factor could be Maiava and USC’s passing game.
That passing game also shapes Wogenrich’s thinking on Penn State’s side of the ball. He expects Ryan Barker, who went from walk-on kicker to walk-off hero two years ago at USC, to be a key piece again. Barker has been inconsistent this season and has missed twice, but Wogenrich projects a reset on Saturday, with Barker drilling four field goals, including a late game-winner.
Penn State linebacker Tony Rojas continues to be one of the clearest bright spots during the skid. Horstman highlighted Rojas’ 12 tackles, 3.5 for loss, a sack and a pass breakup in the Northwestern loss, and noted that he remains on pace for new career highs in each category this season. No matter the result, Rojas is expected to stand out on defense.
On the ground, Wogenrich doesn’t expect Penn State to do much damage. He projects the Nittany Lions to stay under 140 rushing yards, but says James Peoples could play an underrated role. After a difficult showing at Northwestern, where he had eight carries for 13 yards, Peoples is expected to respond with key third-down conversions in the second half as Penn State’s offense keeps grinding.
The passing numbers tell their own story. Horstman notes that Maiava is second in the Big Ten with 290.7 passing yards per game, while Becht is averaging 178.5 passing yards against Big Ten opponents after struggling in the last two games. That gap, he says, suggests Maiava should be the more productive passer on Saturday.
Wogenrich still believes Penn State’s secondary can be the difference. The Nittany Lions rank third nationally in passing defense at 119.6 yards allowed per game, though he points out they haven’t yet faced a real passing threat.
He sees Maiava as the first true test, and expects cornerbacks Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson, Zion Tracy and Josiah Zayas to shut him down. In his projection, Becht throws for 225 yards, just enough to keep Penn State ahead.
There’s also the White Out factor itself, and the possibility that this one could end up carrying an ugly label if Penn State doesn’t win. Horstman says this won’t be a White Out featuring a highly ranked Penn State team or a highly ranked opponent, which means a loss could leave it looking like one of the worst White Outs ever, if not the worst.
If Campbell can beat No. 19 USC, the night can still be remembered for something positive; if not, Horstman suggests it may be forgotten by season’s end.
Wogenrich frames the moment as one in which Campbell’s “We Are” shine has dimmed over the last two weeks, even if Campbell has been warning since December that adversity would have to be faced before success arrives. He says a Penn State win would restore the version of Campbell fans expect, echoing AD Pat Kraft’s description of what the coach is supposed to do: "unite this community, energize our locker room, and restore our championship mindset."
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