No. 19 USC heads to Penn State on Saturday night with the Trojans carrying the sharper offense and the better chance to turn this Big Ten matchup into a road win.
Penn State has hit a rough patch at the worst possible time. After back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, the Nittany Lions have watched their College Football Playoff hopes fade fast.
The offense has been especially stuck in place, producing only 33 points over the last two weeks. Senior quarterback Rocco Becht has managed just one touchdown pass and three interceptions across those two games, yet Penn State still enters the weekend as the home favorite.
USC, meanwhile, comes in at 5-1 after knocking off Washington in Week 5. The Trojans’ only loss came against ranked Oregon, but they’ve been a difficult team to trust at the window, going 1-5 against the spread in six games. Even so, Lincoln Riley’s team still has a chance to make some noise, with Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still ahead on the schedule.
The best reason to believe in USC is Jayden Maiava and that offense. Maiava threw 12 touchdowns with only one interception through the first four weeks, then was picked off twice in his last three games as USC went 1-1.
The Trojans’ lone loss in that stretch came against Oregon, and their title odds have slipped since then, but the production has still been elite. USC ranks eighth in EPA/Pass, fifth in offensive success rate and fourth in passing success rate in 2026.
That offense will be tested by a Penn State defense that has held up better than the record suggests. The Nittany Lions are third in EPA/Pass and fifth in adjusted defensive EPA, but the problem has been the other side of the ball. Penn State’s offense has gone flat, and its overall adjusted EPA/Play sits at 85th.
USC’s defense gives Penn State a clear path to stay in the game, or so it would seem. The Trojans are 131st in adjusted EPA/Play on defense, outside the top 100 in both defensive success rate and EPA/Play, and they’ve allowed at least 21 points in five of six games. But USC did hold Washington to 21 points last week, and with Maiava leading one of the nation’s most efficient passing attacks, the Trojans look capable of trading scores on the road.
Penn State’s early-season wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo do not carry much weight here, and the last two weeks have done little to inspire confidence in Becht or the offense. That’s why the pick is USC to steal it outright.
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Penn State Faces Two Big Concerns Before White Out Vs USC
Penn State spent part of the week clearing the air before a White Out showdown with USC, and the messaging from the podium was pointed enough to show where the pressure points are. A press conference with head coach Matt Campbell, defensive coordinator DAnton Lynn, quarterback Rocco Becht, offensive guard Cooper Cousins and linebacker Cael Brezina gave the usual game-week mix of injury updates and self-scouting, with receiver Koby Howards status drawing attention as the Nittany Lions continue to manage their depth.
Just as notable was the tone around the offense and defense after the Northwestern game, where the conversation turned to quarterback play, overall offensive struggles and what this teams identity needs to look like going forward. On the other side of the ball, the defense is still sorting through challenges that were exposed in that recent trip, and with USC coming into a White Out atmosphere, Penn State does not have much margin for lingering issues to linger much longer. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State White Out Just Became A Snapshot Of This Teams Pressure
The White Out is still one of the biggest scenes in college football, but this years version at Beaver Stadium is carrying an unusual edge. Resale prices have dropped sharply in recent days, reflecting how quickly the mood has shifted around Penn State after an 0-2 start in Big Ten play and a pair of recent losses. What is usually a premium ticket has become a barometer for the pressure building around a team that entered the season with much different expectations.
Matt Campbell acknowledged the struggle and said the focus has to be on growth and improvement, even as the program leans on the same fan base that has made the White Out a signature event. The contrast is hard to miss: a national showcase still capable of drawing attention, paired with a season that suddenly feels more fragile than it did a few weeks ago. How Penn State responds on that stage will say a lot about where this team is headed next. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Alumni Are Making Early NFL Noise For Multiple Teams
Penn States NFL footprint was hard to miss in the latest round of games, with several former Nittany Lions turning up in key moments for their new teams. Jahan Dotson found the end zone for the Atlanta Falcons, Pat Freiermuth hauled in a touchdown for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Mike Gesicki scored for the Cincinnati Bengals, giving the program another reminder that its alumni keep showing up on Sundays.
The defense joined the party, too, as Odafe Oweh delivered a sack and forced fumble for the Washington Commanders. Tyler Warren emerged as one of the Indianapolis Colts top targets, while Theo Johnson added a touchdown for the New York Giants, a spread of production that reflects how widely Penn State talent is already being trusted across the league. [Read more 🡒]