Penn State’s trip to Northwestern comes with a few problems baked in, and the biggest one is that the Wildcats are no longer the kind of opponent you can treat like a clean reset.
The Nittany Lions are coming off a rough Big Ten debut under Matt Campbell, one that started with a 17-0 lead and still ended in a 24-20 loss. Penn State got there by scoring on defense and setting up another touchdown with an interception, but Campbell’s conservative approach after that let the game slip away. Now the schedule hands Penn State a short-week road trip to Evanston, where it will face a Chip Kelly offense that has already looked efficient and just pushed Indiana hard.
That’s why Penn State is only a 2.5-point favorite in Week 5, even though Northwestern was supposed to be one of the softer spots on the conference slate. Instead, the Nittany Lions head to the first game at the rebuilt Ryan Field in real danger of starting 0-2 in Big Ten play against the same program that ended James Franklin’s tenure with a 22-21 win at Beaver Stadium last year. The difference now is that Northwestern has “meaningfully improved with Kelly and transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles.”
The matchup on that side of the ball is the real headache. Northwestern’s offense doesn’t have obvious separators outside, which would normally invite man coverage. But that’s not the answer here, because the whole point of the Kelly system is to make defenses keep their eyes on Chiles and the option looks around him.
A lot of the triple-option wrinkles may still be more style than substance, but they matter because they force defenses into zone and keep linebackers and defensive backs tied to the quarterback. Chiles already adds that stress with his scrambling, and Kelly’s run game only amplifies it.
Once the defense starts peeking into the backfield, Kelly can work play-action and flood zones, and Chiles has been very good throwing into coverage. He’s comfortable turning his back to the defense, which is unusual, and he has enough arm strength to attack tight windows.
He’s also showing a better feel for downfield leverage.
Chip Kelly is at Northwestern; he's reached the "F it, let's get weird" stage of his career, and it's kind of beautiful.
If Penn State isn't careful, this offense could have Matt Campbell 0-2 in Big Ten play. pic.twitter.com/9a53Mbxv9g
- Josh Yourish (@JYourish3) September 30, 2026
Penn State’s best chance to slow it down is to get after Chiles up front, but that’s where the concern really sets in. Indiana’s Stephan Daley lived in the backfield against this offense, and that’s the kind of disruption that can change the game. Chiles’ numbers get shakier when sacks are factored in, because he can be dangerous on the move but also lose chunks of yardage and put the ball at risk.
Penn State does have some pieces to work with. Tony Rojas and Kooper Ebel give the defense speed at linebacker, and Caleb Bacon can be used off the edge as a conflict player who’s more familiar with handling option responsibilities than most edge defenders. He’s also a strong open-field tackler, which makes him a possible answer for tracking Chiles.
But the Nittany Lions still don’t appear to have the kind of pass rush that can consistently force the quarterback into bad decisions. Blitzing is not a clean fix, either. When Chiles was blitzed last week, he went 16/19 for 229 yards, 12.1 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns without an interception.
That leaves D’Anton Lynn with a familiar dilemma: be aggressive with coverage variety, or keep things simpler and risk letting Chiles and Kelly dictate the game. Lynn used diversity in coverage effectively last season at USC, and that approach can still work here if the communication is sharp.
But this offense is built to test those rules and put second- and third-level defenders in conflict. The more Penn State tries to disguise things, the more chances it has to confuse Chiles after play-action - and the more chance there is of a busted coverage.
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