Penn State’s season has gone sideways, but the Nittany Lions may still end up mattering in the College Football Playoff picture - just not in the way anyone expected back in September.
The Nittany Lions opened the year at No. 18 in the AP Poll and climbed as high as No. 13 before the Week 4 loss to Wisconsin at Beaver Stadium started the slide. That defeat kicked off a four-game losing streak that dropped Penn State to 4-4 before Saturday’s Week 9 win over Purdue. Along the way, the idea of Matt Campbell reaching the CFP in his first season in Happy Valley disappeared.
Even with the disappointment, Penn State’s schedule still leaves a lane for the Nittany Lions to influence someone else’s playoff case. The team that stands to benefit most is USC, the only Penn State opponent on the schedule to show up in the first CFP rankings of the season, which were released Tuesday night.
USC landed at No. 20 after beating Ohio State, which fell to No. 12.
The committee didn’t give the Buckeyes much credit with starting quarterback Julian Sayin out. USC’s ranking came in two spots lower than where the Trojans sat in the AP Poll.
The first rankings were not especially kind to the Big Ten overall. Undefeated UCLA checked in at No. 8, and only six Big Ten teams made the Top 25, compared with 10 from the SEC. That setup complicates USC’s path, even if the Trojans do have the conference’s marquee win on their résumé.
That win over Ohio State stands out because USC also has losses to Oregon, which is No. 23, and unranked Wisconsin. The Trojans still have plenty of work ahead of them after their Week 10 bye, with No.
4 Indiana and No. 8 UCLA coming next.
Those games will carry far more weight in whether USC reaches the CFP and whether Lincoln Riley keeps his job.
Still, Penn State could wind up giving USC a small boost if the Nittany Lions keep stacking wins.
Penn State looked sharper than it has for much of the year in the 31-17 win over Purdue, and while beating Purdue should not dramatically change how anyone views a team, the Nittany Lions at least showed a level of competence they had not consistently displayed since Big Ten play began.
Now comes a stretch that could push Penn State toward an 8-4 finish. The Nittany Lions are a 1.5-point underdog at Washington in Week 10, then get Minnesota at home in Week 11 before hosting Rutgers and visiting Maryland, two of the three worst teams in the Big Ten.
Campbell still hasn’t earned any automatic trust that Penn State will handle those games cleanly, but the path to an 8-4 record is there. If that happens, it would not suddenly fix the season or demand any dramatic conclusions, especially with a schedule this soft. But in a year when the SEC has beaten itself up, the committee has not shown much love to the ACC or the Big 12, and the Big Ten has been underwhelming, an 8-4 Penn State team on a five-game winning streak could at least get a look in the final rankings.
That would probably be more about the committee’s broader mess than Penn State itself. But it could still help USC if the Trojans finish 9-3, beat the Nittany Lions in a White Out Game, and try to sell that as part of an at-large case.
Penn State had a gift of a schedule and did not make the most of it, especially with Campbell arriving so late and having little time to build the roster. The Nittany Lions should have been part of the rankings conversation on Tuesday night.
They weren’t. And for Penn State, the CFP intrigue is thin.
For USC, though, Penn State may still end up being worth watching. If the Nittany Lions can keep fooling the committee into treating them like a quality win for Wisconsin, Northwestern, USC and Michigan, the Trojans’ playoff path gets a little cleaner.
In Other News...
Penn State Players Just Got Pat Krafts Message Before Washington
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Kraft has been unusually visible around the football program, showing up at games and making his support for players hard to miss. With the season moving on and the next test already waiting, the message was less about the past than the responsibility that still sits in front of the locker room. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Still Has A Koby Howard Problem Fans Didn't Expect
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The uncertainty is the part that stings most for Penn State, because this is no longer a short-term absence with a clean timetable attached. Howard has been listed as questionable for upcoming games, but the available signs point to a recovery that is moving slowly, if it is moving at all. For a team that expected to have him available by now, the wait has turned into a real roster concern. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Faces An Early Road Test Fans Should Watch Closely
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Still, this one feels different enough to merit a closer look. The teams have not crossed paths often, and Penn State is entering as a slight underdog, which adds a layer of intrigue to an early-season test far from home. For a team with bigger goals ahead, how it responds in that setting could say plenty about the road ahead, even if the full picture will not be clear until the game is played. [Read more 🡒]