Northwestern didn't have a stellar Big Ten season, but they certainly made a statement against Penn State back in January with a commanding 21-point victory. Now, these two teams are set to clash again in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.
The Wildcats, seeded 15th, will face the 18th-seeded Nittany Lions at 7:30 pm ET, right after the Maryland-Oregon matchup. Catch all the action on Peacock.
The winner advances to take on Indiana, the No. 10 seed, on Wednesday.
A key storyline is how Penn State plans to handle Northwestern's standout forward, Nick Martinelli. He was unstoppable in their regular-season meeting, racking up a career-high 34 points.
Tre Singleton also made his presence felt with 17 points and 18 rebounds. Penn State will rely heavily on Kayden Mingo, who contributed 15 points in that game, to counter Northwestern’s powerful inside game.
Let’s dive into the Penn State vs. Northwestern matchup and explore the best Kalshi market options.
Penn State vs. Northwestern Odds
Northwestern is favored by 6.5 points, meaning they need a win by at least 7 points to cover the spread. The oddsmakers are predicting a moderately paced, half-court game, setting the combined scoring total at 143.5 points.
For those new to betting, the moneyline provides a straightforward view of the matchup. Northwestern has a 69.81% implied probability to win, leaving Penn State with a 30.19% chance to upset.
A $5 moneyline bet on Northwestern (-270) would net a $1.85 profit if they win. Betting the same amount on Penn State (+217) could yield a $10.85 profit if they pull off the upset.
Kalshi also offers moneyline markets. Northwestern to win contracts are priced at $0.71 each, translating to -245 odds.
A $5 investment in these contracts would bring a $3 profit if Northwestern wins. Penn State contracts are at $0.31 each, or +223 odds.
A $5 investment could lead to a $12 profit if the Nittany Lions win.
Northwestern vs. Penn State Tale of the Tape
- Overall Record: Northwestern 13-18, Penn State 12-19
- Big Ten Record: Northwestern 5-15, Penn State 3-17
- RPI Rating [D1 Rank]: Northwestern 122, Penn State 180
- Strength of Schedule: Northwestern .5629, Penn State .5505
- Record vs. AP Top 25: Northwestern 0-8, Penn State 0-6
- Record vs. Rank 26-50: Northwestern 0-3, Penn State 0-4
- Record vs. Rank 51-100: Northwestern 2-2, Penn State 1-2
- Record vs. Rank 101-150: Northwestern 0-4, Penn State 3-1
- Record vs. Rank 151+: Northwestern 11-1, Penn State 8-6
Northwestern vs. Penn State Best Bet
The Pick: Under 145.5 ($0.55 per contract at Kalshi)
As we break down this Big Ten Tournament opener, it's essential to look past the overall records and the previous 94-73 blowout in Evanston. Martinelli and Singleton controlled the game in January, but the tournament setting can level the playing field, even with the game close to Northwestern’s campus.
The total is set at 143.5 points, with Kalshi offering a market at 145.5. While their January matchup saw a combined 167 points, expecting a repeat performance in March is risky.
First-round tournament games in large NBA arenas like the United Center often start slow. The deep sightlines can disrupt early shooting, leading to scoring droughts. Both teams are fighting to extend their seasons, which often results in high-pressure, half-court battles instead of fast-paced games.
For Penn State to have a shot, they must slow down the game. Limiting possessions is crucial to counter Northwestern’s dominant frontcourt. Expect a physical, tightly contested game where every point is hard-earned, making the Under 145.5 a compelling play at Kalshi.