Last week’s batch of bold calls landed more often than not, and this week’s slate offers a fresh round of swings. Three of the four predictions from the first weekend of October came through: Missouri rolled Florida, Jeremiah Smith went off for 11 catches, 206 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa, and Minnesota took back the Little Brown Jug. BYU also got the win, though not by the blowout margin that was forecast.
Now comes another crack at the weekend ahead, with the same no-safety-net approach.
Start with the two road favorites sitting at 7.5 points: Indiana at Nebraska and Texas in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. Both matchups carry just enough wiggle room for a weird result, and both opponents are unranked, which only sharpens the upset watch.
Nebraska’s case is built on the idea that Matt Rhule’s team keeps getting underrated; ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Cornhuskers at No. 12 in SP+. Oklahoma’s argument comes from the other side of the ball, with a defense ranked No. 2 in the SEC by yardage ready to bother a Texas offense that sits No. 12 in the league by that same measure.
Penn State gets the White Out treatment, but the bigger question is whether the Nittany Lions have actually shown their best version yet in year one under Matt Campbell. The defense, in particular, still feels like it has more to give.
Yes, the 413 yards allowed to Northwestern last Friday made noise, but Penn State also held Wisconsin to 120, and that’s the number worth leaning on. If the Wildcats outing really was the outlier, the Nittany Lions should be able to handle Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava well enough to keep control.
That sets up a much-needed rebound chance for Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht against a USC defense that should be vulnerable. Becht has had two rough weeks, but this looks like the kind of spot where he can reset. The call here is three touchdown passes, plus an interception and a fumble, with Penn State surviving a messy one 35-21.
One prediction doesn’t try to hide what it is: a record is in real danger. Sheppard enters the week as the nation’s third-leading rusher, and he draws the ACC’s worst run defense in Georgia Tech, which is giving up 189 yards a game on the ground.
The weather only adds to the setup, with remnants of Hurricane Isaias expected to bring rain to Atlanta and make the passing game harder to lean on. Duke running back Mataeo Durant owns the school’s single-game rushing record at 255 yards against Charlotte in 2021, but that mark is in jeopardy here.
The forecast is Sheppard topping it and becoming part of FBS’s 10th 300-yard rushing game of the decade.
The final call goes to NC State, a team that has already taken the long road back from two brutal early losses - a blowout at Virginia on Aug. 29 and a last-second collapse against Vanderbilt on Sept. 19.
That kind of start can flatten a season, but the Wolfpack’s win over Louisville last Saturday was enough to register as a surprise and shift the mood. Against Wake Forest, that momentum should matter.
NC State’s defense is still a mess - 89th in scoring - but the offenses in this rivalry matchup are close enough that the game could come down to details, and the weather should help keep things tight. Quarterback CJ Bailey has thrown an interception in three straight games, but this time the prediction is that he avoids the turnover.
The Wolfpack also lean on backup quarterback Will Wilson, who has six rushing touchdowns, as a useful complement. Put it together and NC State walks away with a 24-17 win.
In Other News...
Penn States White Out Puts One USC Advantage Under Pressure
The White Out at Penn State is already looming as a major test for USC, but it also carries a familiar twist for Lincoln Riley. On the other side will be DAnton Lynn, now Penn States defensive coordinator, who spent last season on Rileys USC staff and helped stabilize a Trojans defense that had been searching for answers. Their shared background gives this matchup an unusual layer of familiarity, with both coaches knowing something about how the other thinks and prepares.
For Penn State, Lynns return to the opposite sideline adds intrigue to a game that will be driven as much by adjustments as by atmosphere. Riley has long been one of the sports sharper offensive minds, and Lynns recent success against that same environment gives the Nittany Lions a meaningful point of confidence. There is mutual respect between the two, but Saturday night is about more than that history. It is a chance to see which coach can turn familiarity into an edge when the crowd, the stakes and the pressure are all at their peak. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State White Out Just Got Bigger Than Anyone Wanted
Penn State is heading into Saturday nights White Out with a lot more on the line than usual, and not just because No. 19 USC is coming to Beaver Stadium for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Nittany Lions have spent the past couple weeks trying to steady themselves after losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, results that have put a spotlight on a season that was supposed to feel more settled by now.
USC arrives with the kind of profile that can make an already charged environment feel even heavier. Lincoln Rileys team is 5-1 and has flashed the offensive punch that has become its calling card, even if the defense has left room for concern. For Penn State, the White Out is no longer just about pageantry and atmosphere. Its a chance to halt the slide before the questions around Matt Campbells tenure grow any louder. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Still Needs More From One Key Pass Rusher
Penn States defense came out of the Northwestern game with a few reminders of how thin the margin can be up front. The run defense gave up more ground than usual, the sack count stayed low, and the overall pressure package never quite found a steady rhythm. For a unit that has leaned on disruption to set the tone, it was the kind of afternoon that left the staff looking for a little more from the edge.
Yvan Kemajou has been part of that conversation because the flashes are there, but defensive coordinator DAnton Lynn made it clear the next step is consistency. Penn State likes the playmaking potential Kemajou brings, and the coaches know there is still room for the defense to tighten up as the season moves on. The upside remains obvious, but the Lions are still waiting for that pass-rushing spark to show up snap after snap. [Read more 🡒]