Mike Locksley’s firing at Maryland was the first domino to fall this season, but it also served as a reminder that college football’s coaching market has changed fast. October used to be the month when the ax started swinging.
Last year, seven FBS coaches were already gone by this point, and five Power Four jobs had opened by the end of September. By October, names like Penn State’s James Franklin, LSU’s Brian Kelly and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy were already out.
In all, 30 jobs turned over in 2025.
This year feels different. The sport’s money has shifted the whole equation.
Rosters are regularly pushing past $30 million, and that makes a huge buyout plus the cost of replacing a staff and reworking a roster a much harder sell. Programs are also changing how they operate, with schools like Oklahoma and USC hiring independent general managers to help build rosters in a more NFL-style setup.
In that model, the coach matters - but he’s no longer the only piece that matters.
That’s why the next firing conversation is more complicated than it used to be. Some coaches are still squarely on the hot seat.
Others are practically protected by their buyouts. And a few may have already talked their way into another year by the way their teams have performed.
The toughest cases to move on from are the ones where the money makes the decision nearly impossible. Shane Beamer falls into that bucket after South Carolina’s Oct. 3 overtime loss to No.
24 Kentucky. The loss felt like it might be the end, especially after Beamer stood on the sideline taking it all in and then looked defeated afterward.
But reports quickly said South Carolina was unlikely to make a move, with finances driving the hesitation. If the school fired him after the season, Beamer would be owed more than $22 million, and that’s before the Gamecocks fully fund the kind of roster they want.
Florida State’s Mike Norvell is in an even tougher spot from a financial standpoint. His buyout would be nearly $50 million, a number that is simply not realistic for one of the most successful programs of the 21st century. A donor could theoretically step in, but that kind of rescue seems hard to imagine, especially in the middle of the season.
Then there’s a second group where the separation would be about more than just money. Dabo Swinney, Deion Sanders and Lincoln Riley all come with massive financial hurdles, but the human side of those decisions is just as tricky.
Swinney is Clemson. Sanders has a brand that reaches far beyond Colorado football.
Riley has the most outrageous contract of the three, but has also quietly looked around before. In each case, the athletic director may not be the one who ultimately pulls the trigger.
They could leave, or work something out, without the usual clean firing-and-replacement storyline.
A few coaches still fit the traditional hot-seat mold, though, and their finishes will likely decide everything. Baylor’s Dave Aranda, NC State’s Dave Doeren and Boston College’s Bill O’Brien all have work to do.
Aranda’s Bears are 4-2, but the 17-6 home loss to rival TCU was a bad look, and the stretch run brings BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. With this roster and a manageable buyout, 7-5 may not be enough.
Doeren is sitting at 3-3 after the loss to Vanderbilt, a result that keeps getting uglier, even if NC State did beat Louisville. If the Wolfpack can get to bowl eligibility, he may survive, but the donor base could be ready to move on if the year stalls. The question then becomes whether the money is there to land someone better.
O’Brien’s case is a little calmer after the upset of Pittsburgh a week ago. A couple more wins on a manageable schedule, and he should be fine.
And then there are the coaches who have already helped themselves. North Carolina, Mississippi State and Wisconsin all poured more money into their programs this cycle, and the early returns have been strong.
Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels are 4-2 and have given both Clemson and Notre Dame problems, with at least three more wins still sitting on the schedule. Jeff Lebby’s tenure at Mississippi State got a huge lift from Kamario Taylor, and the Bulldogs could still push for eight wins.
Wisconsin, after what it showed in the second half against Notre Dame, has looked the part during a 4-2 start, even with the loss to UCLA hanging around. There are at least four more wins left there too.
That’s the big picture right now: in this era, spending to support the coach might be more valuable than spending to replace him. The old instinct is still there, but the math has changed.
In Other News...
Cael Sanderson Just Raised A Serious Penn State Wrestling Concern
Cael Sanderson used Penn State wrestlings media day to voice a concern that has lingered around college athletics for some time: whether the rules are being enforced clearly enough for programs to know where they stand. The Penn State coach sounded frustrated by the NCAAs uncertainty, saying the lack of consistent standards can make it hard to tell whether playing by the book could actually leave a team at a disadvantage.
The immediate wrinkle for Penn State involves former wrestler Levi Haines, whose eligibility status remains unclear even as he continues preparing for international freestyle competition. Sanderson pointed to that uncertainty as part of a bigger problem, one that affects not just the Nittany Lions but the broader landscape of college wrestling, where clarity on who can compete and when still seems frustratingly out of reach. [Read more 🡒]
Marylands Next Hire Could Create A New Big Ten Problem For Penn State
Marylands coaching search is suddenly one of the more interesting items on the Big Tens offseason board, and it matters far beyond College Park. After firing Mike Locksley, the Terrapins are expected to explore a wide range of candidates, from rising assistants to proven head coaches, each bringing a different kind of upside and risk. For Penn State, the name attached to Marylands next move could shape how competitive the East side of the league feels in the seasons ahead.
Among the possibilities being discussed are JaMarcus Shephard, Jason Eck, Jake Dickert, Bryant Haines and Billy Napier, a mix that shows Maryland could lean either toward upside or experience. The fit question is the real one here, because a strong hire could help stabilize a program that has struggled for consistency and make the conference landscape a little tougher to navigate. For Penn State, that is the part worth watching: Maryland does not need to become a powerhouse to affect the Nittany Lions, only steady enough to make one more Big Ten game harder than it should be. [Read more 🡒]
Penn State Wrestling Is About To Dominate The National Spotlight
Penn State wrestling is set to spend plenty of time in the national window next winter, with the Big Ten Network unveiling its 2026-27 television schedule and putting the Nittany Lions front and center. Penn State leads the conference with seven nationally televised matches, a fitting setup for a program that has turned marquee duals into routine appointments for the sports most invested fan base.
Three of those broadcasts will come at home at the Jordan Center, while four more will follow the Nittany Lions on the road for Big Ten matchups. BTN will also carry the 2027 Big Ten Championships from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, giving Penn State another high-profile stage as it continues to navigate the conference slate that usually decides everything in March. [Read more 🡒]