Penn State’s White Out arrives at a strange crossroads Saturday night.
The Nittany Lions are still favored, sitting as 1.5-point picks over No. 19 USC according to DraftKings, even after consecutive Big Ten losses in which they managed just three offensive touchdowns.
USC, meanwhile, made the trip east Thursday for its second Eastern Time Zone game of the season. Kickoff is set for just after 7:30 p.m.
ET at Beaver Stadium on NBC’s Big Ten Saturday Night.
That’s the backdrop for a game that has plenty of noise around it, even if the stakes don’t quite match the usual White Out standard.
Penn State has to clean up a lot after a rough two-game stretch, but USC has its own issues, too, including the 35 points it allowed at Rutgers. So the matchup becomes less about reputation and more about which side can steady itself first under the lights.
Chase Fisher sees Penn State snapping out of its slump, though not without a fight. He expects USC’s offense to be the difference against a Penn State defense that has given up 714 total yards over the past five quarters. His pick: USC 27, Penn State 24.
Will Horstman is leaning the same direction. He pointed to the Nittany Lions’ back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern and said he doesn’t trust Penn State right now, even with the White Out crowd behind it.
He doesn’t think Campbell will get a win against his first ranked opponent this season. His pick: USC 27, Penn Statge 17.
Mark Wogenrich took the opposite view and thinks Penn State can right itself. He noted that USC ranks 13th in the Big Ten in total defense at 348.8 yards per game, but also suggested Penn State may have already played its six worst quarters of the season. His pick: Penn State 26, USC 23.
A lot of the game’s pressure points center on USC running back King Miller and quarterback Maiava. Fisher called Miller the key because Penn State’s secondary is the second-highest graded in the country, just behind Georgia, according to Pro Football Focus. Miller averages 82.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks sixth in the Big Ten, and Fisher believes he’ll log his third 100-yard rushing game of the season.
Horstman focused on Maiava, who he called the best passer Penn State has faced so far this season. Maiava ranks second in the Big Ten with 290.7 passing yards per game, while Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht has averaged 178.5 passing yards against Big Ten opponents. Horstman thinks the game could come down to USC’s passing attack.
Wogenrich, though, believes Penn State’s secondary can decide the night. He pointed to the Nittany Lions’ national ranking of third in passing defense at 119.6 yards allowed per game and said Maiava is the first real passing threat they’ve seen. In his view, cornerbacks Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson, Zion Tracy and Josiah Zayas will shut USC down, while Becht does just enough with 225 passing yards.
There are also a few individual Penn State names that keep coming up in the projections. Fisher thinks tight end Ben Brahmer needs to be more involved, especially without star wide receiver Koby Howard, and predicts Brahmer will catch at least six passes for 75 or more yards and a touchdown.
He also warned, “Please don’t transfer Koby Howard.” Fisher said Howard remains the team’s only real answer to stretching the field.
Horstman singled out linebacker Tony Rojas as a steady presence despite the losing streak. Rojas had 12 tackles, 3.5 for loss, a sack and a pass breakup against Northwestern, and Horstman said he remains on pace for career highs in each of those categories.
Wogenrich expects Penn State to lean on James Peoples, who had just eight carries for 13 yards at Northwestern. He believes Peoples will bounce back with key third-down conversions in the second half, especially in a game where Wogenrich doesn’t think Penn State will top 140 rushing yards.
Kicker Ryan Barker also drew attention. Wogenrich noted that Barker went from walk-on kicker to walk-off hero two years ago at USC. After missing twice this season, he thinks Barker gets back on track with four field goals, including a late winner.
There’s no shortage of White Out drama around the result, either. Horstman said this game could end up as one of the worst White Outs ever if Penn State loses, especially since neither team arrives as a highly ranked power.
If Penn State wins, though, it gives Campbell a signature result and, as Wogenrich put it, a chance to restore some of the “We Are” feel that has faded over the last two weeks. Wogenrich also pointed back to Campbell’s message to fans since December: they’d need to face adversity before success could arrive.
Pat Kraft, he noted, said a win would “unite this community, energize our locker room, and restore our championship mindset.”
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