Penn State’s 2026 season looks like the kind of year that could go in two very different directions, and ESPN’s Football Power Index is leaning toward the better one.
The latest preseason FPI gives the Nittany Lions a No. 17 ranking, a number that fits the shape of this roster and the road ahead. Penn State has rebuilt heavily, adding 55 new players, including 24 from Iowa State, and that kind of turnover usually comes with growing pains. But the schedule gives the Nittany Lions a real chance to make that transition look smoother than it might otherwise be.
That’s the big reason the FPI sees Penn State as a playoff-caliber team with a manageable path. The model gives the Nittany Lions a 95.8-percent chance to win six games, which is a pretty low hurdle for a roster this experienced. Rocco Becht leads one of the Big Ten’s most seasoned groups, and he does it as the quarterback with the most returning FBS snaps.
Penn State’s ranking also reflects how the FPI has viewed the program in recent years. Even after a 7-6 finish in 2025, the Nittany Lions were still slotted 16th, ahead of 12-win BYU and Big Ten teams Iowa, Michigan and Washington. They were sixth in 2024 and fifth in 2023, when they finished 10-3 and lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.
This year, though, the No. 17 spot feels more grounded in reality. Penn State’s schedule is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
Three Big Ten teams sit in the top six of the FPI - No. 1 Ohio State, No.
4 Oregon and No. 6 Indiana - and Penn State does not face any of them in the regular season.
Among the Big Ten teams on the schedule, USC is the highest-ranked opponent at No. 13.
After that, only Michigan at No. 15 and Washington at No. 26 crack the top 40 among Penn State’s conference opponents. The nonconference slate is even softer, with Marshall, Temple and Buffalo all ranked below 100.
Purdue, at No. 71, is the only other opponent that comes close to that range.
That’s why this looks like a nine-win schedule on paper, and why the early bar is so manageable. Six wins should not be the standard for this team, even with so many new faces on the roster. Campbell’s Iowa State teams missed bowl eligibility only twice in 10 seasons, and one of those was the 3-9 rebuild in his first year in 2016.
Penn State does not have that kind of runway in 2026. The schedule gives the Nittany Lions a chance to build momentum quickly, with what looks like seven nearly automatic wins and a handful of games that will decide the season: USC, Michigan, Washington, Minnesota and Northwestern.
That setup also makes a run to the Big Ten title game more realistic than usual. If Penn State gets there, though, the Nittany Lions would likely have to deal with Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.
The first major checkpoint comes Oct. 10, when USC visits Beaver Stadium. Penn State is likely to be 5-0 by then, and it will be Campbell’s first top-20 game as the team’s head coach.
The playoff picture is still there, too. Penn State has the fifth-best odds to make the field among Big Ten teams, and the path is pretty clear: win 10 games and avoid letting the schedule knock the Nittany Lions out of at-large contention. Splitting the USC and Michigan games would give Penn State its best shot.
For now, the FPI keeps the optimism measured. Penn State has just a .8 percent chance to win the national title, which says plenty about where this team stands. The Nittany Lions are in the conversation, but they are not there yet.
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Penn State Faces Major Pressure In Battle For Elite In-State EDGE
Penn States push for elite in-state talent is running into a tougher recruiting climate than usual, and the latest example is four-star edge rusher George Parkinson IV. The Pennsylvania standout has become one of the most closely watched names in the state, with Penn State in the mix alongside LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, Tennessee and Texas A&M as the race for one of the regions top defensive prospects tightens.
The bigger issue for the Nittany Lions is what this kind of battle says about their ability to hold off national heavyweights when the process gets expensive and competitive. With in-state recruiting already showing how difficult it can be to keep top talent close to home, Penn States NIL setup is now part of the conversation, and this recruitment could become a telling test of whether the program can match the deep-pocketed contenders circling Parkinson. [Read more 🡒]
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Penn States offseason turnover was always going to force a reset, but the scale of it makes the 2026 retool feel especially dramatic. More than 60 players are gone from the roster, including eight NFL Draft selections, and that leaves a lot of the depth chart in the hands of newcomers and players who have yet to prove they can handle full-time roles.
Up front, the Nittany Lions are preparing to lean on redshirt freshman Malachi Goodman at left tackle, while the defense is also being asked to absorb some major changes. Transfer linebacker Braelon Bacon is part of the answer in the middle, and young defensive end Yvan Kemajou is suddenly in the spotlight on the edge, giving Penn State a lot to sort through before the season starts to reveal which of these step-up spots can hold. [Read more 🡒]
Did Penn State Simply Outgrow James Franklin In The End
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Now at Virginia Tech, Franklin is stepping into a different kind of job, one where the expectations and the weekly pressure look a lot different than they did in State College. He has already acknowledged that the ACC presents a different scenario than chasing a national championship, and the question hanging over both schools is whether Penn State simply reached the point where Franklins model had taken it as far as it could go, or whether the relationship grew too comfortable before the final break. [Read more 🡒]