Jordan Spence has been quite the find for the Ottawa Senators. Acquired last summer from the Kings for a couple of draft picks, Spence has proven to be a savvy investment.
This 25-year-old defenseman has been a standout with his possession game, and he's on track for a career-high in points. Not bad for someone who was initially seen as a gamble.
Spence, a right-shot defenseman, has been playing on a budget-friendly $1.5 million cap hit, but with his restricted free agent status looming, he's in line for a well-deserved raise. When he joined the Senators, there was chatter about him being "sheltered" in Los Angeles.
This season, Ottawa has used him similarly, but he's still logging a career-high 18:02 of ice time per night, with that number climbing past 20 minutes in recent games. Despite starting 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, Spence is showing he's more than just a third-pairing player.
The Senators face a tricky situation in negotiations. Spence wants to be compensated like a top-four defenseman, and his development suggests he's on the cusp of that role.
Ottawa, however, might want to see him consistently handle those minutes before committing to a hefty salary. With Nick Jensen sidelined for the season, Spence has an opportunity to prove himself in a larger role.
Recently, Spence has been stepping up, tallying five points in his last five games. His offensive skills aren't in question, but his defensive metrics are what really shine.
Last season, he led the Kings in goal share and expected goal share, and even topped the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes. This year, he’s leading the Senators in expected goals percentage and has excelled with all three of his defensive partners: Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven.
Critics might point to his turnovers or claim he needs to be sheltered, but since overcoming early-season healthy scratches, Spence has been rock-solid. He's adept at puck retrieval and zone exits, and any offensive zone usage is more a testament to coach Travis Green leveraging his strengths.
Finding comparables for Spence is tricky. Sean Durzi, his former teammate, signed a four-year, $24 million deal at age 25, but Durzi had a more established track record and played consistent top-four minutes.
J.J. Moser of the Lightning recently inked an eight-year, $54 million contract, but Moser’s proven top-four experience sets him apart.
A $6 million salary might seem steep for someone with Spence's current role, but with the rising salary cap, it's not outlandish. AFP Analytics projects Spence could land a four-year extension with an average annual value of $4.94 million. A short-term deal might hover around $1.7 million, but given recent signings, that figure could be outdated.
If the Senators commit to a multi-year deal at around $5 million annually, it might raise eyebrows, but considering Spence's age, potential, and solid two-way play, it could be a smart move in today's cap environment.