Senators Face One Brutal Reality In Measuring Up To Tampa Bay

The Ottawa Senators face a challenging matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with both teams reshaped through strategic trades and signings gearing up for the season ahead.

The Senators’ offseason has been a moving target ever since Brady Tkachuk asked out and was shipped to Florida for the ninth and 25th picks in the 2026 draft, a 2027 second-rounder and a 2029 first-round pick. From there, Steve Staios turned the ninth pick into William Eklund, Kasper Halttunen and Brandon Svoboda in a deal with San Jose, then added Andre Burakovsky and goalie Samuel Ersson while bringing back Claude Giroux, Nick Cousins, Jordan Spence and Leevi Merilainen.

That’s the backdrop for another Atlantic Division test case, and this one comes with a heavyweight attached. Tampa Bay finished with 106 points, took a first-round playoff exit, and still managed to reshape its roster in a way that keeps it squarely in the mix with Ottawa.

The Lightning’s summer started with a couple of familiar departures. Pending UFA defenseman Darren Raddysh was sent to Toronto for a fifth-round pick after a 22-goal, 70-point season, a year so far above his usual production that Tampa was comfortable letting him go in a sign-and-trade.

Former Senator Nick Paul also landed in Toronto after his own run as a useful middle-six piece in Tampa cooled off. He had back-to-back 20-plus goal seasons, but last year brought just 15 points in 51 games, a 23-point pace over a full season.

Tampa’s trade additions were minimal, with goaltender Dennis Hildeby the lone notable pickup in the Paul deal. Hildeby posted a .914 save percentage last season and is set to back up Andrei Vasilevskiy, giving the Lightning the same kind of support Ottawa sought when it brought in Ersson.

The bigger swing came in free agency. Tampa replaced Raddysh with John Carlson, the longtime Washington Capitals defenseman who finished last season with Anaheim.

The 36-year-old signed for two years at $8.5 million per season, matching what Raddysh is getting in Toronto. The Lightning also added Ilya Mikheyev on a four-year deal worth $3.85 million per season, and Jeffrey Viel on a surprising five-year contract at $2.5 million annually.

Viel’s arrival gives Tampa a little more bite for the Battle of Florida.

On the way out, Oliver Bjorkstrand signed with the New York Rangers and Corey Perry headed to Los Angeles.

So which team had the better offseason? Tampa gets the edge, though it’s a close call.

The Lightning lost Raddysh, Paul, Perry and Bjorkstrand, but Carlson is a major addition, and Hildeby, Mikheyev and Viel round out the group. Ottawa lost Tkachuk, which is a huge blow, but it also brought in Eklund, Burakovsky and Ersson, plus extra prospects and draft capital.

As for which team will be better this season, Tampa gets that nod too. Ottawa finished just seven points behind the Lightning last year, and there’s a real case that the Senators’ younger core has more growth left in it. Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto, Dylan Cozens and Eklund all still have room to climb.

But Tampa’s core is still the more proven one, and until the decline actually shows up, it’s hard to bet against it. Nikita Kucherov is coming off a 130-point, Hart Trophy season.

Jake Guentzel scored 38 goals, Brandon Hagel had 36, and Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli remain high-end players. Victor Hedman still runs the blue line, Carlson now joins him, Vasilevskiy is fresh off another Vezina Trophy season, and Jon Cooper is the reigning Coach of the Year.

For now, the Senators are still the ones trying to catch them.

In Other News...

Jake Sanderson Just Gave Senators Fans Another Reason To Trust The Plan

Jake Sandersons rise has already made him one of the most important pieces of Ottawas rebuild, and now it has given the Senators another bit of validation in a league where contract value can swing a franchises direction. The Athletics latest look at the NHLs best and worst deals put Sanderson near the very top, a reminder that Ottawa is getting elite impact from a player who is still early in his career and central to everything the team wants to become.

For a Senators club that has spent years trying to turn promising talent into real roster certainty, that kind of bargain matters. It also fits the broader picture around Steve Staios, who has left open the possibility of more movement before training camp as Ottawa continues to shape the roster around its core. The question now is whether the front office can turn that flexibility into one more meaningful addition, because the plan looks stronger when Sanderson is already delivering this kind of value. [Read more 🡒]

Senators Still Have One Massive Forward Puzzle To Solve

Ottawas forward group has already changed shape once this offseason, with Brady Tkachuk and Lars Eller out and William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky in, but the real work is still ahead. Tim Sttzle remains the clear centerpiece, and the rest of the lineup is being sorted through a mix of talent, fit and experimentation as the Senators look for the right combinations before the season begins.

Travis Green is expected to keep shuffling his lines, which makes the picture even less settled for the players fighting for premium minutes. Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Claude Giroux and Shane Pinto are all in the mix for the top six, and there is still a sense that Ottawa could use another move or two before camp to make the puzzle a little easier to solve. [Read more 🡒]