Senators' Defense Turns a Corner Under Travis Green, but Offense Still Searching for Spark
For years, the Ottawa Senators were known for chaos on the ice - end-to-end action, wide-open play, and a defense that often felt like an afterthought. Whether it was the post-2007 Cup Final erosion of their blue line, the Erik Karlsson era where offense flowed but defensive structure wavered, or the long rebuild that followed, one thing was clear: defensive consistency wasn’t in this team’s DNA.
That’s changing - and fast - under Travis Green.
Through the first 25 games of the season, Green has the Senators playing some of the most structurally sound five-on-five hockey we’ve seen from this franchise in the analytics era. The numbers don’t just hint at improvement - they underline it in bold. Ottawa is suppressing shots and scoring chances at a rate that stands out not only compared to recent years, but across the league.
No Senators team since 2007 - when the NHL began tracking detailed in-game events - has allowed fewer shots per game at even strength. Their 53.1% expected goals share is the best mark the franchise has posted in the modern analytics era. That means they’re not just holding opponents in check - they’re tilting the ice in their favor.
It’s a credit to the system Green has implemented and, perhaps more importantly, the buy-in from the players. The Senators are playing behind the puck, staying compact in their structure, and making life easier on their goaltenders - something that hasn’t always been the case in Ottawa.
Now, it hasn’t always felt like the defense is clicking, especially during games like the recent one in Dallas, where lapses led to goals against. But when you zoom out and look at the full body of work, the improvements are undeniable. This is a team that’s defending with purpose.
That said, the pendulum may have swung a bit too far in the other direction when it comes to offensive production.
Ottawa has become a low-event team on both sides of the puck. According to Evolving-Hockey’s data, the Senators sit in the bottom third of the league in several key offensive categories:
- 55.29 shot attempts per 60 minutes (21st in the NHL)
- 24.93 shots on goal per 60 (23rd)
- 2.51 expected goals per 60 (27th)
Put simply, the Senators are struggling to generate consistent offensive pressure. The good news is that they’re still out-chancing their opponents overall - and their shooting percentage (10.69%, 7th in the league) has helped mask some of those issues.
But that kind of efficiency is tough to sustain over a full season. If the shot volume doesn’t increase, the offense could start to dry up.
One major factor in the offensive struggles? The absence of Brady Tkachuk.
The Senators’ captain has missed 80% of the season so far after undergoing thumb surgery, and his absence has been felt in a big way. Since his rookie year in 2018-19, only four players - Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, and Alex Ovechkin - have taken more shots on goal than Tkachuk. He’s a volume shooter, a tone-setter, and a guy who drags his team into the fight every night.
Getting him back in the lineup will be a major boost, not just for the top six but for the overall depth. With the talent Ottawa now has across four lines, Tkachuk’s return could be the spark that finally balances out the defensive gains with more consistent offensive pressure.
The Senators are also feeling the sting of missing Thomas Chabot.
The puck-moving defenseman has been out for the last four games after aggravating an upper-body injury he initially suffered earlier in November. He missed three games the first time around, and he's now approaching a similar timeline.
Without Chabot, the Senators have turned to Tyler Kleven, who’s been paired with Jordan Spence. That duo has struggled to fill the void.
In their four games together, they’ve controlled just 50% of the shot attempts, 48.68% of shots on goal, and only 33.33% of the goals scored at five-on-five. Their expected goals share sits at 46.19%, and they’ve been allowing more shots, chances, and goals than any other pairing on the team, per Natural Stat Trick.
Chabot’s absence has exposed the thin margin Ottawa is working with on the blue line. While the system is holding up, the execution - especially from the second and third pairings - needs tightening.
Tuesday night’s game in Montreal wraps up a seven-game road trip, and it’s a big one. After that, the Senators return home for a more favorable stretch - seven of their next 12 games will be at Canadian Tire Centre, and the level of competition should give them a real shot to rack up points.
This is a critical stretch. The Senators have made real progress defensively, but now they need to start stacking wins. Building a cushion in the standings now could give them the margin for error they’ll need later in the season.
The foundation is there. The structure is in place. With Tkachuk’s return on the horizon and Chabot hopefully not far behind, the next few weeks could tell us whether this version of the Senators is ready to take that next step - from rebuilding to contending.