Paolo Banchero’s Struggles Are Real - But So Is the Patience He Deserves
The Orlando Magic pulled out a gritty 110-106 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night, but the box score left fans with one burning question: Why did Paolo Banchero only take eight shots?
For a player who just signed a max extension and carries the weight of a franchise on his shoulders, that number jumps off the stat sheet - and not in a good way. It's become a regular ritual in Orlando to dissect every Banchero performance, searching for deeper meaning in his shot totals, turnover counts, or body language.
Some nights he’s too passive. Other nights, too aggressive.
The expectations are sky-high, and that comes with the territory when you’re seen as the future of the franchise.
But there’s no doubt: Banchero has had a tough go to start this season. And in a year where the Magic are finally feeling real playoff pressure, every possession feels like it matters a little more.
A Superstar Under the Microscope
Let’s start with the basics. Banchero is averaging 20.5 points per game - his lowest since his rookie year.
His field goal attempts are down to 14.9 per game, and his efficiency has taken a hit across the board: 43.6% from the field and a rough 23.7% from three. That’s not the kind of production you expect from your offensive centerpiece.
Dig a little deeper, and the numbers don’t get much better. According to Synergy, Banchero is hitting just 26.1% of his jumpers - that’s bottom 10 percent in the league. Among high-usage players (usage rate of 25% or more), only Ja Morant and Cam Thomas have a worse effective field goal percentage.
So yes, the criticism isn’t coming from nowhere. The Magic need more from Banchero if they’re going to make any real noise come playoff time.
But here’s the thing - it’s not all bad. In fact, there’s a lot of nuance that gets lost in the noise.
Banchero’s All-Around Game Is Still There
While the jumper hasn’t been falling, Banchero has found other ways to impact the game. He’s averaging a career-high 8.5 rebounds per game and matching last year’s assist numbers at 4.5 per night. He’s also getting to the line more than ever - 8.6 free throw attempts per game - and converting at a career-best 77.2% clip.
So while the scoring hasn’t been up to par, his all-around effort hasn’t wavered. He’s still finding ways to contribute, even when his shot isn’t cooperating.
And let’s not forget the context here.
Working Back from Injury - And Into a New Role
Banchero strained his groin 12 games into the season and missed three weeks. When he returned, he eased back into the lineup, helping maintain the ball movement that had fueled a 7-3 run in his absence.
But just two games after Banchero came back, Franz Wagner went down with a high ankle sprain. Suddenly, Banchero was thrust back into the role of primary scorer and offensive initiator - and he didn’t look quite ready for it.
In the six games since Wagner’s injury, Banchero has averaged 20.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Not bad at all. But he’s shooting just 40.6% from the field, and the Magic have gone 3-3 in that stretch with a 111.5 offensive rating - 23rd in the league.
That’s where the frustration creeps in. The Magic looked smoother when Banchero was out, and now that he’s back, things feel clunkier. But that’s not the full story.
The Offense Isn’t Stalling - Even If It Looks That Way
One of the criticisms thrown at Banchero is that he slows the offense down. But the data tells a different story.
Since Wagner went down, Orlando has posted a 117.0 offensive rating with Banchero on the floor - second-best on the team in that span, trailing only Jalen Suggs (who’s only played two games). That’s not the mark of a player bogging things down.
And if you’re looking for signs that he’s trying to keep the ball moving, consider this: Banchero is averaging 3.29 seconds per touch over the last six games, down from 3.52 seconds per touch on the season. That’s a clear sign he’s trying to make quicker decisions and not over-dribble.
He’s also flirted with triple-doubles on multiple occasions, including a full one in the loss to Denver. Even when the shot isn’t falling, he’s finding ways to keep the offense afloat.
The Bigger Picture: Waiting on Wagner
Here’s the bottom line: the Magic are still figuring things out. And they’re doing it without one of their key offensive engines in Franz Wagner.
Before Wagner’s injury, the Magic had a +2.1 net rating with Banchero on the floor and a +2.7 with Wagner. When both were on the court together, that number jumped to +4.0. That’s a strong indicator that these two can - and do - play well together.
Despite the noise suggesting otherwise, there’s no evidence that Banchero and Wagner can’t coexist. In fact, the numbers show they complement each other well.
So yes, the visuals right now - with Banchero and Desmond Bane leading the charge - might look awkward. But the Magic aren’t broken.
They’re just banged up. And Banchero is still working his way back to full strength.
What Comes Next
The Magic have invested heavily in Banchero. That comes with expectations, and no one knows that more than him.
He’s not ducking the pressure - he’s facing it head-on. He even pushed back on the criticism recently, calling it “bull----” to suggest he and Wagner can’t make it work.
And he’s right to defend himself. The results haven’t been consistent, but the effort and intent are there. He’s adjusting, evolving, and trying to carry a heavy load for a young team still learning how to win.
So yes, the Magic need more from Banchero. That’s undeniable. But they also need to give him the space to work through these growing pains - because when he figures it out, and when Wagner returns, this team has the pieces to be a real problem in the East.
Patience isn’t always easy in the NBA. But with Paolo Banchero, it might just be worth it.