Magic vs. Spurs: 3 Keys to Watch as Orlando Looks to Stay Hot
The Orlando Magic are rolling, and they’re doing it without their top star. But tonight’s matchup against a shorthanded but still-dangerous San Antonio Spurs squad offers more than just another test-it’s a chance to see how deep this Magic team really is.
Let’s break down the matchup through three key storylines that could shape the outcome.
1. Winning Without the Stars-But Don’t Get It Twisted
There’s been some noise lately-mostly from outside Orlando-about whether the Magic might actually be better without Paolo Banchero. Let’s be clear: that’s not a serious conversation inside the league.
Banchero is the engine of this team’s offense, and when he’s on the floor, everything runs smoother. His absence due to a groin strain is a hurdle, not a blessing.
But here’s what is true: the Magic have kept winning without him.
They’ve gone 7-2 in the nine games Banchero has missed, posting a +9.8 net rating in that stretch-third-best in the league. Their offense has jumped to a 120.6 rating (5th), and the defense has held strong at 110.9 (also 5th). That’s not just surviving-it’s thriving.
The Spurs, meanwhile, have quietly been navigating their own star absence. Victor Wembanyama has been sidelined with a calf strain, and while the national conversation hasn’t zeroed in on that the same way, San Antonio’s numbers tell a similar story. They’ve gone 6-2 without Wemby, with a solid +3.6 net rating and a scorching 120.8 offensive rating.
But the defense? That’s where the drop-off shows.
The Spurs are giving up 117.3 points per 100 possessions without their 7-foot-4 anchor protecting the rim. Wembanyama’s absence is felt, even if it’s not as loudly discussed.
Bottom line: both teams are missing their franchise players, but both have found ways to compete. Tonight’s game is about which supporting cast can carry the weight a little longer.
2. Suggs Slumping, But Black Is Rising
Orlando’s backcourt has been a pleasant surprise this season-and not just because of the names you’d expect.
Desmond Bane continues to be a reliable scorer and perimeter threat, and Jalen Suggs has earned his reputation as a defensive tone-setter. But lately, it’s rookie Anthony Black who’s been turning heads.
Black has stepped up in a big way over the last eight games, averaging 18.1 points and shooting 37.5% from deep. His ability to attack off the bounce and finish in traffic has added a new layer to Orlando’s second unit, and he’s even started to close games when the Magic go with a three-guard lineup.
That’s been especially important with Suggs hitting a rough patch from long range. After a breakout game against the Clippers where he went 5-for-9 from three, Suggs has hit just six of his last 30 attempts from beyond the arc. Monday’s 2-for-10 showing and Friday’s 2-for-11 performance were tough to watch.
Still, Suggs’ value goes beyond his shooting. He brings pressure defense, toughness, and leadership. But in a game like this-against a Spurs team that can light it up-Orlando’s going to need a few of those shots to fall.
The good news? Black’s emergence gives the Magic options. Whether it’s a traditional two-guard look or a small-ball trio, Orlando has the flexibility to adjust on the fly.
3. De’Aaron Fox: The X-Factor
With all the attention on Wembanyama, it’s easy to forget that San Antonio has a proven All-Star in De’Aaron Fox-and he’s been quietly excellent since returning from injury.
Fox came back on November 7 and has picked up right where he left off. He’s averaging 24.5 points and 6.4 assists per game, and his speed adds a layer of unpredictability to an otherwise methodical Spurs offense.
San Antonio plays at a slower pace overall, but Fox is the guy who can shift gears in an instant. He thrives in transition, punishes lazy closeouts, and has a knack for late-game heroics-especially against Orlando. In 12 career games vs. the Magic, he’s averaged 19.8 points and has delivered more than a few clutch moments.
If the Magic want to keep this win streak alive, containing Fox at the point of attack is priority number one. That means Suggs and Tyus Jones will need to stay disciplined, fight through screens, and avoid giving Fox any runway.
Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Both teams are still dealing with significant injuries, and that’s shaping the rotation on both sides.
Spurs Injury Report:
- Victor Wembanyama (calf) - OUT
- Stephon Castle (hip) - OUT
- Jordan McLaughlin (hamstring) - OUT
- Harrison Ingram - OUT (G-League)
- Riley Minix - OUT (G-League)
Magic Injury Report:
- Paolo Banchero (groin) - OUT
- Moe Wagner (knee) - OUT
- Orlando Robinson - OUT (G-League)
- Jamal Cain - OUT (G-League)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League)
- Franz Wagner - AVAILABLE (face mask)
Projected Starters:
| Spurs | Magic |
|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | Jalen Suggs | | Devin Vassell | Desmond Bane |
| Julian Champagnie | Franz Wagner | | Harrison Barnes | Tristan da Silva |
| Luke Kornet | Wendell Carter Jr. |
What to Expect
The Magic have hit a bit of a cold spell shooting-wise, and Monday’s win over the Bulls showed some of the same offensive hiccups that haunted them last season. But they still found a way to grind out a win-and that’s the mark of a team learning how to win in different ways.
The Spurs, despite missing key players, are no pushover. They’ve got firepower, and they’re sneaky good at punishing mistakes. If Orlando gets sloppy with turnovers or loses focus defensively, San Antonio has the tools to capitalize.
Still, this is a tough spot for the Spurs-second night of a back-to-back, traveling across time zones, and missing their best rim protector. If the Magic stick to their identity-defend, run, and get enough from their guards-they should be able to outlast the Spurs, especially down the stretch.
The streak is real. The chemistry is building. And even without Banchero, this Magic team is showing they’re more than just a one-man show.