Is Paolo Banchero Still the Right Cornerstone for the Magic? Revisiting the 2022 NBA Draft Debate
The Orlando Magic are stuck in a familiar spot - hovering around the middle of the Eastern Conference pack, trying to find consistency and an identity that sticks. And while the team’s rebuild has shown flashes of promise, one of the biggest questions hanging over the franchise right now centers on the face of that rebuild: Paolo Banchero.
The 2022 No. 1 overall pick came into the league with all the makings of a franchise player. Rookie of the Year?
Check. All-Star in Year 2?
Check. A 29-point playoff performance last spring that hinted at star-level upside?
Check again. On paper, it’s been a strong start.
But dig a little deeper, and the picture gets more complicated.
Banchero’s Offensive Struggles Are Hard to Ignore
This season, Banchero is averaging 20.9 points per game - a noticeable drop from last year’s scoring output. And it’s not just the raw scoring numbers.
His efficiency has taken a step back across the board. He’s shooting just 26.9% from beyond the arc and only 50.9% on two-pointers.
For a 6'10" forward who often operates inside the arc, that’s not going to cut it - especially when he’s expected to be the offensive engine.
Even more concerning is his career shooting mark of 44.6% from the field. Among players with at least 3,000 shot attempts over the past four seasons, Banchero ranks near the bottom in true shooting percentage. That puts him in the company of volume-heavy, low-efficiency scorers - the kind of players who can put up points but don’t always help their teams win.
What’s more, Banchero’s presence has created some roster tension. Franz Wagner, arguably the Magic’s most consistent and efficient player, operates best when there’s space to work.
Banchero’s limited shooting range clogs that space, making life harder for Wagner and the rest of Orlando’s offense. It’s not a matter of effort or mentality - Banchero has hit clutch shots this season and clearly embraces the big moments - but right now, he’s not creating good enough looks for himself or others to be a true No. 1 option.
A Look Back at the 2022 Draft: What If?
When the Magic were on the clock in 2022, the top of the draft board featured three prospects: Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., Duke’s Paolo Banchero, and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren. Orlando went with Banchero, a move that surprised some after weeks of speculation that Smith or Holmgren might be the pick.
Oklahoma City wasted no time grabbing Holmgren at No. 2.
Fast forward to now, and it’s fair to wonder: Did the Magic make the right call?
Holmgren missed his entire rookie season due to injury, but since returning, he’s shown exactly why he was so highly regarded. He’s shooting 57.7% from the field and 38.4% from three, while grabbing 8.5 rebounds and blocking two shots per game. His blend of rim protection, floor spacing, and basketball IQ has made him a two-way force - and a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
What separates Holmgren right now is his understanding of his role. He’s not trying to be the No. 1 scorer - he doesn’t need to be.
Instead, he plays within the flow of the offense, makes winning plays, and fits seamlessly next to another star. That’s exactly what he did last season en route to a championship.
Banchero, on the other hand, is still trying to figure out where he fits. He has the tools to be a go-to guy, but the production hasn’t matched the potential - at least not consistently. And if he’s not going to be the lead scorer, his skill set doesn’t yet complement another star the way Holmgren’s does.
Imagining a Different Orlando Core
It’s hard not to think about what the Magic might look like today had they gone with Holmgren instead. Picture a core of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, and Holmgren - a versatile, two-way group with spacing, size, and defensive chops. Whether they went big with Wendell Carter Jr. or Goga Bitadze, or small with someone like Tristan da Silva or a three-guard look featuring Anthony Black, there’d be flexibility and balance.
That kind of lineup could compete at a high level. It would ask a lot of Wagner to take on the alpha role, but based on what we’ve seen, he might be better suited for it than Banchero right now.
Where Do the Magic Go From Here?
None of this means Banchero is a bust - far from it. He’s still just a few years into his NBA journey, and the Magic aren’t in a position to make any drastic moves.
His current contract situation, including the poison pill provision, makes a trade unlikely in the near term. And Orlando has every reason to be patient and give him time to develop into a more efficient, well-rounded scorer.
But the questions are real. The fit next to Wagner is clunky.
The offensive production is inconsistent. And the 2022 draft decision is one that’s going to be revisited often - especially if Holmgren continues to rise.
For now, the Magic are betting on Banchero to figure it out. But if he doesn’t, the franchise may be left wondering what could’ve been - and what still might need to change.