The NBA’s punishment of the Clippers didn’t just hit Los Angeles. It may have quietly set up a headache for Orlando, too.
After the league’s investigation into the Clippers’ business dealings with Kawhi Leonard and possible cap circumvention, the penalties landed hard: five future first-round picks stripped away, a $30 million fine, a one-year suspension for owner Steve Ballmer, a six-month suspension for head basketball decision-maker Lawrence Frank and a $700,000 fine for Leonard.
The scale of it has already drawn comparisons to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ punishment in the Joe Smith case and even to the NCAA’s four-year suspension of SMU football. In other words, this is about as close as the NBA gets to a death penalty.
The Clippers will have a much tougher path to building going forward, but they are hardly going away. Ballmer’s suspension lasts a year, not forever, and the team’s draft-pick situation stretches out for the next seven years because the Clippers had already traded their first-round pick in the last two years.
That matters for the Magic because the Clippers may have to attack team-building in a completely different way. Sam Vecenie said on the Game Theory Podcast that the Clippers’ new reality could push them into the market for players Orlando would like to keep.
“If I'm Steve Ballmer and all these penalties are upheld, and he wants to keep the team, I'm just throwing my financial weight around and going to get picks," Vecenie said. "Or they could do it the way we're going to use our cap space next summer and try to steal Anthony Black and try to steal Scoot Henderson or some young player like that. Take fliers on young guys who fit really well with Keaton Wagler and after that we'll have a bunch of expiring money too.
"They still have so many different ways they can attack this because Steve Ballmer is richer than everybody else."
That’s where Orlando enters the picture. Anthony Black is shaping up as one of the more interesting restricted free agents in next summer’s market if he does not agree to an extension this offseason, and a Clippers team with room to spend could become a problem for the Magic.
Orlando would like to keep Black. The organization has made a habit of holding onto most of its drafted players, but that approach has also made the roster expensive and pushed the Magic toward the second apron this season. At some point, the bill comes due, and Orlando will need to trim payroll if it is not contending for a title.
That puts Black in a tricky spot. The Magic can match an offer sheet next summer, but their desire to keep him runs into the reality of what they can afford.
Black’s role is still being defined, even after a breakout season last year following two developmental years in his first two seasons in the league. Orlando is expected to lean on him to anchor its bench units, but the bigger question is how much the team is willing to pay for that kind of player - and how much it can actually pay.
The Clippers’ punishment also changes the broader restricted free agency landscape. This past offseason was a rough one for players in that spot.
The Nuggets used matching rights to keep teams away from Peyton Watson after his breakout year, before the Cavaliers ultimately landed him in a sign-and-trade. Bennedict Mathurin waited around until the Pelicans gave him a two-year deal.
Jalen Duren is still unsigned, though he is expected to stay with the Pistons.
There just were not many teams with cap room this summer, and restricted free agency has become even more cumbersome under the new CBA. That should loosen next year, and the Clippers are part of the reason why.
Los Angeles is still in position to be active. The roster remains talented, with Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram as former All-Stars, and the team sits $11.9 million below the tax. It has enough flexibility to operate in trades and enough short-term salary to go lower still if it chooses.
That creates the possibility that the Clippers could chase a player like Black with an offer the Magic would struggle to match.
And they may not be alone. Bobby Marks of ESPN projects that anywhere from 3-10 teams could wind up with meaningful cap space depending on how the season and trade deadline play out. That would create far more competition than Orlando saw this summer.
Black and his camp are surely watching that landscape, too. The Clippers could decide to use their new cap room to absorb bad money and rebuild draft capital. Or they could swing bigger and target young players in free agency.
Either way, Orlando is now on notice as it weighs what comes next with Black.
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